Over the past couple of years, Central Gujarat region where Congress and BJP are having almost equal sway remained less affected by ongoing pro-quota Patidar agitation led by Hardik Patel.
Even during peak of Patidar agitation post GMDC rally of Hardik in August 2015, this region was unaffected. Moreover, three Congress MlAs representing Thasra, Kapadvanj and Balasinor Assembly seats resigned from the oldest political party and joined the saffron brigade ahead of Rajya Sabha polls earlier this year.
In this backdrop, BJP is hopeful to improve its tally compared to 2012 Assembly polls. Of the 40 seats in the region spread across seven districts – Vadodara, Dahod, Panchmahal, Chhota Udepur, Mahisagar, Anand and Kheda – BJP could win 22 seats from Central part of the State. Congress did comparatively better by securing 17 seats compared to other regions. Remaining one was captured by Sharad Pawar’s political outfit Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Margin of victory in the 11 seats of the region was narrow and seven among them was won by ruling BJP.
In the previous elections BJP got maximum share in urban votes, while Congress made its mark among rural and tribal votes. BJP won all 10 Assembly seats in Vadodara district in the last Assembly polls. Of the six seats of tribal district Dahod, BJP and Congress won three each. In three other tribal influenced districts including Chhota Udepur, Panchmal and Mahisagar Congress and BJP are evenly poised.
“BJP will retain all 10 seats in Vadodara district. We would also improve tally in other districts too. In the past two decades, development in Vadodara and surrounding areas are visible,” says Sanjeev Pancholi of BJP adding that biggest strength of his party would be plethora of development works and new projects have come in Vadodara and other parts of Central Gujarat.
Traditionally the biggest city of Central Gujarat and cultural capital of the State – Vadodara has remained BJP fortressed for years. Narendra Modi too contested lok Sabha polls from Vadodara in 2014 lok Sabha polls apart from Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. Modi won the seat with record margin of over 5.9 lakh votes from here. Though he preferred to continue as Varanasi MP, Voters of Vadodara backed another BJP candidate in the by-polls.
However, Congress supporter Kalpesh Patel counters Pancholi’s claim saying that forge other district in Central Gujarat, there would be intense contest on five seats. Congress would make major dent in BJP’s urban vote banks this time as people are angry over Modi Government over demonetisation and GST, says Patel.
Two important district Kheda and Anand coming under Charotar area here Congress won eight out of 13 Assembly seats last time, the Opposition party has not left a single stone unturned to improve its tally. On the other hand BJP believes to win few seats in Charotar area following entry of two Congress sitting MlAs in its fold. Charotar is known as birthplace of Sardar Patel and a place where white revolution began through Amul Dairy in Anand. In both these district – Kheda as well as Anand Muslims too have sizable number of votes which would be another negative factor for the ruling party, says Vishwas Parmar, who is associated with an NGO.
In the past one week, PM Modi is constantly visiting this part of the State to woo voters. BJP supporters believe that his rallies would improve the situation in favour of their party. If BJP will have to form the Government at Gandhinagar, the saffron party will have to win at least 25 out of 4o seats from here.
Electors in this region will exercise their franchise on Thursday, December 14 - the second phase of 2017 Gujarat polls.