The unexpected happened in Uttar Pradesh. Riding high on Modi wave, Bharatiya Janata Party swept this politically sensitive State reducing Congress and Samajwadi Party to a single digit while decimated Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya lok Dal as both of them failed to open their accounts.
The BJP won 71 seats with a vote share of 42 per cent. This is 25 per cent more than 2009 elections when the BJP had won just 10 seats. BJP’s partner Apna Dal won two seats — taking the NDA tally in UP to 70. This is the best ever performance of the BJP — better than 1998 when BJP could win 57 seats out of 85 in undivided Uttar Pradesh.
There is a strange paradox which can happen only in Utter Pradesh where BJP has 47 legislators in State Assembly but 71 Members of Parliament. This tally is much more than the combined figure of Congress at the national level.
The Samajwadi Party and Congress won five and two seats respectively — and incidentally in both these parties members of their family were victorious. If Gandhis won Rae Bareli and Amethi, the winners among Yadavs are Mulayam Singh Yadav from Mainpuri and Azamgarh, his daughter-in law Dimple Yadav, Mulayam’s nephew Dharmendra Yadav and Prof Ram Gopal Yadav’s son Akshay Yadav.
Notwithstanding this family drama, this lok Sabha has thrown up astonishing outcome leading to annihilation of BSP. In the last lok Sabha election, Mayawati’s party had won 20 seats and this time it has failed to open its account though BSP got 19.9 per cent of votes. In contrast the Congress which got 7.2 per cent of votes in 2014 got two seats.
This trend is a clear indicator of shift of dalit votes in the favour of BJP this time. The BSP did get almost 20 per cent votes and this indicates that dalits have voted for Mayawati but it was not the proverbial en bloc voting as witnessed in last two assembly elections and 2009 lok Sabha elections. The dalits votes, which account for almost 23 per cent of the vote share, did get fragmented and a large chunk went with Modi and BJP.
After the drubbing she got in 2012 Assembly elections, Mayawati did try to replicate the social engineering formula of combining Brahmin and dalit in this lok Sabha election when she fielded 21 Brahmins in Uttar Pradesh. The upper caste too went with the BJP leaving BSP high and dry.
A senior bureaucrat had told The Pioneer that Jats and Jatavs in western Uttar Pradesh had voted in favour of BJP. The western UP had witnessed one of the ugliest communal riots last year and Jat-Jatav voting pattern was ascribed to the polarisation of votes in that area. But this pattern found echo in other parts of the State too leading to a quantum jump in BJP’s fortune.
Besides, this election has also raised a question mark on Muslims’ voting pattern. With BJP getting over 42 per cent votes this is clear indication that a section of Muslims must have voted in favour of BJP. The talk of tactical voting is now a thing of passé as far Muslim voting is concerned.
The lok Sabha result will now put a big question mark on Akhilesh Yadav Government’s future. The Samajwadi Party had contested this election based on Government’s two year rule. With this election seen as referendum for Government’s performance it could be requiem for the Samajwadi Party Government in Uttar Pradesh.