Reenergised by the stunning victory the party has scored over the CPI(M) in Tripura Assembly election, the Kerala BJP has started efforts to covert the by-election to be held in the Chengannur Assembly constituency in four months’ time into the threshold of its road to capturing power in the State.
The Election Commission is yet to announce the schedule for the by-election necessitated by the death of sitting member KK Ramachandran Nair of the CPI(M) on January 14 but discussions over who would win the seat have intensified in the State’s political circles following the CPI(M)’s absolute rout in Tripura in the hands of the BJP.
All the three fronts – CPI(M)-led ruling lDF, Congress-led UDF and the BJP-headed NDA – have started the preliminary preparations for the by-election.
However, the BJP is several steps ahead of the other two fronts in the preparation as it has almost identified its candidate while the CPI(M) and Congress have still not been able to form even a rough idea about their contestants.
The State BJP, which perceives a new confidence among the leadership and increased enthusiasm among the workers in the context of the victory over the left in Tripura, thinks that the party has every chance of winning the by-poll in Chengannur, a constituency where majority community votes decide the outcome in every election.
The outcome of the Chengannur by-election will not have any immediate political significance as the ruling left front still has 90 MlAs in the 140-member Assembly. However, it has already become a subject of heated debates because many think that the result in Chengannur can set the tone for the lok Sabha election in Kerala.
“We are ready for the battle in Chengannur,” said a top leader of the State BJP. “We know that this will be one of the most ferociously fought by-elections in Kerala. We will mobilize every available resource to ensure that Chengannur becomes the starting point of our march for capturing power in Kerala,” he said.
According to sources in the BJP, the party will be fighting the by-election under the direct supervision of national president Amit Shah. They also say that an ad-hoc committee dominated by members from the central leadership is likely to be constituted to oversee the by-poll works but its mission could extend to the general election as well as the 2021 State Assembly polls.
Shah has reportedly told the State leadership that the central leadership will be satisfied by nothing less than victory in Chengannur and that there will be stringent action if any sign of divisionism is seen during the by-poll period. The national leadership is considering Chengannur as one of the Kerala Assembly seats that hold the best chances of victory for the party.
The BJP is most likely to field former State president PS Sreedharan Pillai, a native of Chengannur, as the NDA candidate for the by-election. Pillai had put up a sparkling performance in the constituency in the 2016 election by increasing the party’s score to 42,682 votes from the 6,062 votes party candidate B Radhakrishna Menon had polled in the 2011 polls.
If the BJP succeeds in bagging the Chengannur seat in the by-poll, it will prove to be a much-needed shot in the arm for the party in the State for its plans for the general election. The party already has an MlA in Kerala – senior leader O Rajagopal – and it had claimed second position in at least five seats in the 2016 election.
The CPI(M) has so far been planning to field its Alappuzha district secretary Saji Cherian as the lDF candidate in Chengannur but party sources now say that there can be a change of plan in the new context. The party is likely to consider a more popular face acceptable to the majority community voters and the name of former MP CS Sujatha is under active consideration.
The Congress party’s natural pick was young leader PC Vishnunath who had won the seat for the UDF in 2006 and 2011 polls. As he has expressed his reluctance to contest the by-election, the Congress is now searching for another acceptable face.
One of the names being considered by the Congress leadership is M Murali, former MlA from Mavelikkara.