A political sense seems to have prevailed over Asaduddin Owaisi, who after flying high on the skylines of Seemanchal region of poll-bound Bihar, has now come down to earth.
Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s (AIMIM) decision to contest only six seats as against speculated 24 seats is seemingly an afterthought exercise as his well-wishers and supporters advised him and his younger brother Akbaruddin Owaisi, who visited the region last weekend, to play down and fight only symbolically in view of the ground realities and Muslims by and large tilt towards Maha gathbandhan.
“The AIMIM followers had to face fury of the local Muslims in their areas who questioned the wisdom of Owaisi to suddenly make a decision to enter poll fray in Bihar without any preparation. They were accused of helping the BJP,” said Anwar Masood, a college teacher in Kartihar.
The ground reality in Seemanchal is that the Maha gathbandhan is making high level preparations to campaign in Muslim-dominated region and mobilise the community against the BJP. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is expected to camp in the region and campaign extensively. His allies RJD and Congress have strong organisations there and in the last lok Sabha polls the BJP and its allies despite their surge all across Bihar failed to open account there and all the seats were shared by the JD(U), the RJD, the Congress and the NCP.
Initially, there had been speculation that the AIMIM would contest all the seats in Seemanchal but Owaisi in a TV channel debate in Patna last month said his party would not contest all the seats. Now the party has identified six seats Kochadhaman, Kuishanganj, Baisi, Raniganj, Amour and Balrampur. Of the six candidates the party declared one is a Dalit who will be fielded in Raniganj. However, the AIMIM MlA from Telangana Ahmed Belal said the party might announce some more candidates after the approval of Owaisi. There is still enough time left for fielding more candidates as the polling in Seemanchal region would be held in the last phase on November 5.
The ground reality, sources claimed, is that Owaisi is not a popular leader for the people of Seemanchal, where poverty and illiteracy is rampant, even if they like him as a Muslim leader of national stature. The outsider tag to him and allegations that he announced to jump in poll arena without any preparation has dampened the spirit of the party’s staunch supporters.
Moreover, the Muslims of this region have no minority complex and this is the result of this feeling that they vote freely to Muslim candidates. In each constituency, a number of Muslim candidates, both of parties and Independent, contest and they divide the Muslim votes. This also resulted in the past the victory of Hindu candidates obviously due to polarization of votes on religious lines.
Have a look at the 2010 Assembly results. There are altogether 50 Assembly seats with 20% and above Muslim votes. Five years back, BJP alone won 26 seats out of them. It was not that the Muslim voted for the BJP but because of division of Muslim votes that went into the advantage of BJP. The JD(U), then an ally of BJP, however, failed to get as much success as its partner. Out of 21 seats JD(U) fielded in those constituencies only 11 could win. The BJP-JD(U) combine together won 37 out of these 50 seats while RJD-lJP alliance got six and Congress three. The remaining four were won by independents.
Even more interesting was the result from 12 Assembly seats where Muslim population is 40% and above. BJP had fielded seven candidates and four of them won, including its lone Muslim candidates Saba Zafar. RJD and JD(U) fielded 8 and five candidates respectively and could win only one seat each. Congress fielded 12 candidates of which three won and lJP won two.