With the CPI(M)-led Opposition lDF emerging as the indisputable winner of Kerala’s local bodies election, the question being discussed now in the State’s political circles is whether the left will repeat that victory in the Assembly election to be held in April-May next year and grab power beating the Congress-led ruling UDF.
Equally relevant is the question whether the BJP, which made great gains in the local polls, has attained the capability of realising its dream of opening account in the State Assembly. Yes is the answer to both the questions if one goes by the indications contained in the civic poll results unless dramatic political developments change the scenario in the intervening period.
The geographical spread of the left’s victories in the civic bodies indicates that it can win 82 seats of the total 140 in the Assembly and grab State power if political conditions remain more or less the same till the Assembly elections. local self-Government councils of only 54 Assembly constituencies have shown UDF domination in the just concluded polls.
The civic poll results show that the BJP has clearly established its dominance in two Assembly constituencies. It could be a neck-and-neck race between the lDF and the UDF in two Assembly seats as per the indications of the local election results but the fact is that it will take a while for the Congress to overcome the shock it has now suffered.
“This is what the civic poll results indicate but it need not be the whole reality,” says PVS Warrier, a senior journalist. “The factors at play in civic elections and Assembly polls could be different. However, it was a peculiarity of this election that most of the issues – like corruption and immorality – discussed in it were relevant to the whole State,” he said.
The geographical distribution of the wins the left, UDF and the BJP have scored in the local bodies election is almost akin to that usually seen in the State polls in Kerala. When the lDF dominated in councils mostly in the northern and southern regions, the UDF retained its influence in central districts as it used to happen in Assembly elections.
That the Muslim league, second biggest UDF constituent, has been able to retain its dominance in the civic poll in its stronghold, the Muslim-majority Malappuram district, despite some not-so-minor jolts caused by rebels and regional differences in the front, is a big relief to the ruling coalition.
However, observers feel that the State is unlikely to see big changes in the political situation before the Assembly election. “The Assembly election is to take place within seven months and it is too short a duration for the UDF to settle the issues that had led to its present debacle,” Warrier said.
The UDF had hoped that the emergence of the BJP as a relatively big force this time in the civic poll with its alliance with several majority community outfits to affect only the lDF but the fact is that the ruling coalition also suffered huge losses in several areas due to this. Many UDF leaders fear that this could happen in the Assembly election as well.
Observers also say that it will not be a surprise at all if the BJP, which has till now not been able to win even a single seat in the Assembly, bags a seat or two in the 2016 elections in Thiruvananthapuram district if the results of the just-concluded poll are any indication. The party had done extremely well in Thiruvananthapuram constituency in the last lok Sabha election though it lost it by a small margin.
“It all depends on the political developments that take place between now and the Assembly election and the capacity of the UDF, especially the Congress, to get over the several factors that are working against it – like the bar bribery scam — apart from the inevitable anti-incumbency factor,” said a senior leader of the RSP, a minor partner in the ruling coalition.