he Ashoka Centre for a People-Centric Energy Transition (ACPET) , Ashoka University, held a high-level consultation workshop titled “Viksit Bharat @2047 and Net Zero @2070 Trajectory — Delayed Thermal Coal Phase-Down in India” to estimate thermal coal demand in India up to 2047 while sustaining rapid economic growth, ensuring energy security, and accelerating the shift towards renewable energy sources.
The workshop opened with a special address from Dr. Anil Kumar Jain, Chairman, PNGRB, who affirmed that with the continued and increased use of coal in power generation even in 2047, it was imperative for this collective knowledgedissemination through this workshop to guide national energy policies. To meet the challenges this throws up requires
collaboration. In the first session, researchers shared insights from ACPET’s modelling work on future coal demand scenarios, electricity requirements, and renewable energy expansion to facilitate dialogue on the timeline for a meaningful coal phase-down.
Researchers from ACPET’s Energy Futures Lab presented estimates on whether renewable capacity can match demand in the lead up to Viksit Bharat 2047 and Net Zero 2070.
Using a regression-based approach, ACPET examined installed capacity of coal and renewables required to meet these goals through a sectoral assessment of electricity demand.
The analysis views how growth of clean energy sources in electricity generation mix will impact demand for thermal coal in its Viksit Bharat growth path.
The findings challenge the perception that an increase in RE supply will lead to a decline in coal use.
The findings show that thermal coal demand will range from 1,228 million tonnes, with 60 per cent RES in the generation mix and manufacturing contributing 27 per cent to GDP, to a high of 3,612 MT in a 15 per cent RES scenario and manufacturing as 34.5 per cent of GDP.
The discussions also make the case for restructuring the just transition to push for cleaner coal usage through sequestration and carbon capture, more efficient coal usage and stricter emissions norms, and considerations for energy security. The discussions also make the case for restructuring the just transition to push for cleaner coal usage through sequestration and carbon capture, more efficient coal usage and stricter emissions norms, and considerations for energy security.
The requirement of coal to achieve grid stability and cover RE intermittency issues cannot be overlooked.
The workshop facilitated that India’s coal and Net Zero transition by 2070 must be balanced and people centric. The transition must take into account fiscal federal structures and considerations in the transition path. Finally, a people-centric transition for the Indian situation is a political, social, judicial and federal question at the end of the day. It has to be balanced and contextual and not at the cost of equity considerations.
Currently, the welfare implications of a switch from coal to renewables can lead to net negative welfare effects for the entire economy. Therefore, well thought out social safety nets must be an essential component of a people-centric energy transition with the context of Viksit Bharat by 2047 and Net Zero by 2070.
The Ashoka Centre for a People-centric Energy Transition (ACPET) is a transdisciplinary research hub dedicated to advancing sustainable and equitable energy pathways in Indiaand the Global South. ACPET addresses critical knowledge gaps in energy transitions, focusing on innovation, inclusivity, and impact. From renewable electrification to circulareconomy strategies, ACPET develops actionable frameworks that prioritize people, communities, and the environment.