In Seemanchal’s Katihar and Araria lok Sabha constituencies, anti-incumbency and Narendra Modi are appearing to play a pivotal role in deciding the poll course of the candidates. These two north-eastern Parliamentary constituencies also have a considerable percentage of Muslim votes that could swing the result either way.
The BJP candidate, Nikhil Chaudhury, has been winning on Katihar seat for the last three elections but this time he apparently is facing the toughest battle of his political career. Contesting against him, his old rival, Tariq Anwar, is in the fray on a NCP ticket. The ruling party JD(U) has fielded former Minister Ram Prakash Mahto to make the contest triangular but apparently making no presence in the battlefield.
like its neighbouring Parliamentary constituencies, Katihar has over 30 per cent Muslim electorate and this time, it seems, they have decided to vote for the NCP candidate for (party’s) alliance with the UPA, who could stall Narendra Modi from becoming the Prime Minister of the country. Though, there are altogether six candidates in the fray from the minority community but this time it is unlikely to see any division in votes.
“like the previous polls, if the Muslim votes get split then the winning chances of the sitting BJP MP will increase,” said Shivprakash Mahto of Manihari.
However, there is one silver lining for the BJP candidate. The records show that the Shershahbadi Muslims, who are believed to have come from Bangladesh, have been voting for their local candidate from their own community instead of one from any national party. They even had voted against Congress candidate Tariq Anwar in 2009 lok Sabha poll for which he lost by a margin of less than 10,000 votes. Tariq Anwar, though, had won lok Sabha poll from the seat four times since 1980.
Shershahbadis have considerable poll influence in areas like Barsoi, Barari and Kadwa. In last elections, they had voted for Hamid Muabarak from their own community.
There are altogether 20 candidates on Katihar seat but the two main contestants are of the BJP and the NCP.
Besides, the BJP candidate had also got votes of EBC and Mahadalit as JD(U) was an alliance partner in 2009 poll but since they have parted ways this time, it has become difficult for the BJP candidate. The JD(U) candidate, though, is banking on the development plank of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
“This time we’re not voting for any candidate but to those only who could stop Narendra Modi,” said Akhtar Hussain while adding that in given scenario Tariq sahib comes as a natural choice.
But, against the BJP candidate, the anti-incumbency apparently is reeling strong. He is riding on NaMo wave as well as the consolidation of Hindu votes in the name of Narendra Modi.
While criss-crossing the constituency, it was found that the local issues which were predominant earlier, now have vanished and the poll has veered around anti-Modi or pro-Modi factor. “The issues of Manihari road bridge, flyovers and rail connectivity are not of the poll talk now. The only issue reeling is Narendra Modi,” said Babloo Jaiswal, a resident.
Similar is the poll scenario in the neighbouring Araria lok Sabha constituency where RJD candidate Mohd Taslimuddin is posing a tough challenge to BJP candidate and sitting MP Pradeep Kumar Singh while JD(U) candidate Vijay Mandal is pitching hard to make the tussle triangular on Nitish Kumar’s development works.
With almost 30 per cent Muslim vote share, majority of them Kulhaiya (native Muslims) Araria is a Seemanchal constituency where polarisation of votes after NaMo could play a decisive role in the result. The effect of Akhtarul Iman, the JD(U) candidate from Kishanganj, who pulled out from the race, is apparent in adjoining Araria constituency.
“When Akhtarul played his part in stalling NaMo from becoming the PM, in Araria the Muslims may rally behind RJD candidate Mohd Taslimuddin to ensure his win,” said Asrar Ahmad.
Besides Muslim voters, the constituency has also about 3 lakh Yadav voters and an equal number of EBC voters. “I don’t see any problem for Mohd Taslimuddin if the Muslim voters join hand with the Yadavs,” said a resident of Bhajanpura village.
JD(U) candidate Vijay Mandal is riding on his good image but the Bhajanpura firing incident has dented his image. He is accused of doing nothing about the incident orchestrated by a BJP MlC.
“Nitish Kumar may have done some development works but he can’t say himself secular. He was in alliance with the BJP for over 17 years and he didn’t do anything in Bhajanpura firing case,” said villager.
Mohd Taslimuddin, has been a controversial politician of Seemanchal area for long but he apparently wields a significant political influence in the region. His son, Sarfaraj Ahmad, is a MlA from Jokihat Assembly constituency and he is campaigning hard on behalf of his father.