With Muthuvel Karunanidhi leaving the centre stage on Tuesday, the State of Tamil Nadu has lost two powerful protagonists of Dravidian politics. J Jayalalithaa, the eternal rival of the DMK and Karunanidhi had left the scene in 2016 itself. The departure of these two central characters has taken the sheen out of Tamil Nadu politics.
The demise of Jayalalithaa saw the AIADMK disintegrating into three factions. But there is no possibility of such a scenario in the DMK. Karunanidhi has been out of active politics for the last two years because of age related issues. He did not campaign actively in the 2016 Assembly election though Jayalalithaa was active in the field. It was Stalin, Karunanidhi’s chosen heir who led the DMK campaign and fared reasonably well by winning 98 seats.
The fact that Stalin succeeded in putting up a brave show despite finishing runner-up in the race is enough indication that the death of Karunandhi would not usher in any major changes in the prospects of the DMK. The main reason is that the DMK is a cadre based party and has always commanded 30 to 35 per cent of the popular votes in the State.
What caused the party to lose the 2011 assembly election was the spate of corruption cases against the DMK Ministers in the Union Cabinet as well as all round failures in the infrastructural development of the State. In the 2014 lok Sabha election, the AIADMK routed the DMK and it has to do a lot with the internal fight in the party. M K Alagiri, the Madurai based son of Karunanidhi and who was in charge of the southern districts of the DMK was kept out of the party. Alagiri struck by asking his followers to stay away from campaigning. His nominees too were ignored while selecting the candidates. This was the pattern visible in the 2016 assembly election too.
In the next election , if Stalin manages to get the cooperation of Alagiri, the DMK would obliterate the AIADMK. The fact that the AIADMK has split into three and the party was humbled in the R K Nagar bye election necessitated by the death of Jayalalithaa proves that the party has no strong leaders to get it out of the quagmire of internal politics. But it is not the case with the DMK.
The DMK’s main enemy seems to be the members of the Karunanidhi clan. They are the only people capable of creating dissensions and indiscipline in the party. Being a cadre based party, the workers are solidly behind Stalin. The silver lining is the fact that Stalin came up in the party through the mill.. He worked as youth wing president for decades before getting elevated as working president of the DMK. He used this phase to build his network of supporters all over the State.
The DMK cadre, upset over the death of Karunanidhi would stand together in this hour of need because there are no other leaders in the party capable of challenging the supremacy of Stalin. This is in stark contrast to the situation in AIADMK factions, where there is lack of trust between leaders of the same faction.
As on Wednesday, the DMK is in a strong wicket unlike the AIADMK , at least for the time being. There are no other outfits capable of taking on the DMK.