All is not well for the BJP in the West UP districts where as many as 73 Assembly seats go to polls in first phase of the State Assembly elections on February 11. Even the largely attended election meeting by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Meerut on February 4 has not made much of a difference as the core voters of the BJP are either alienated or indifferent. Before the Prime Minister’s meetings, BJP president Amit Shah had to call off a roadshow in Meerut.
Shah had cancelled the roadshow as a mark of respect for a businessman who was shot dead by a gang of dacoits who had raided his business premises.
Political observers say if the perception and the mood prevailing in the region right now are anything to go by then it appears that the BJP is facing an existential crisis. The fledgling Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance seems to be head and shoulder above at the level of perception. What has added to the woes of the BJP is its inability to publicise its election manifesto where it has promised the waiver of crop loan of small and marginal farmers and interest-free crop loan in future. The small and marginal farmers account for over 90 per cent of the farming community in the State.
According to a political analyst in Meerut, right now the BJP is seen fighting for the third and fourth spots along with Choudhary Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya lok Dal. For, most of the 73 Assembly constituencies that go to polls on February 11 are likely to witness a direct contest between the SP-Congress alliance and the BSP. Even former State BJP president lakshmi Kant Bajpai is locked in tough triangular contest where the BSP has fielded local Sindhi trader Pankaj Jolly, who is cutting into his Hindu vote base while the Muslims are consolidated behind Rafiq Ansari of the SP-Congress alliance.
How the electoral fortunes of the BJP has nosedived in the region where it had been comfortably placed for the last over two decadesIJ First, the Jats who had formed the core of BJP’s vote base have alienated following the inability of the BJP to give job reservation to the community and violence that ensued in Haryana following the agitation for reservation leading to police firing where four Jat youth were killed and many were arrested besides causing huge loss to public and private property. The Jats leaders from Haryana are aggressively campaigning in Jat-dominated areas of Meerut, Bagpat, Muzaffarnagar and Shamil who constitute over 17 percent of the voters.
Moreover, there is sympathy among Jats for Ajit Singh, who along with his son Jayant Chowdhary lost the last 2014 lok Sabha elections to the BJP candidates. Ajit Singh, son of late Prime Minister Chowdhary Charan Singh, is seen as a person in distress who needs the support of the community in his hour of crisis. Ajit Singh is also telling the Jats as to how he and his father was humiliated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he was forced to vacate the official bungalow in Delhi with which the local people has fond memories of last over four decades. Chowdhary Charan Singh lived in that bungalow which was later allotted to Ajit Singh.
Second, there is no communal polarisation for the simple reason that there is no communally surcharged atmosphere this time and peace prevails in the region. The situation is back to the pre-2014 days when there wasn’t any Muzaffarnagar riot factor to cause a huge communal divide. Muslim voters are now both united and divided - united in their resolve to defeat the BJP and divided between the Congress-SP alliance and the BSP when it comes to weighing the chances of individuals candidate’s strength vis-à-vis the saffron camp.
And third, the so far hidden negative impact of notebandi is beginning to come to the fore. The business community particularly the jewellers are angry with the BJP for the huge loss to their business during the peak season which is marriage season. The other traders are also sore with the BJP for the same reason as there was no cash with the rural people. Besides Jats, the dominant Gujjars seem inclined towards the BSP and the alliance.
What has further aggravated the woes of the BJP that the alliance to a very large extent has wiped out the anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and there is general ‘feel good aura’ around the alliance that’s impacting the minds of the unattached young voters cutting across caste lines. It was the same voters - the youth that had triggered the Modi-wave all across UP in 2014.
Also remember that in the past 25 years or so the SP and the Congress had, at best, been minor forces in Western UP. Their fortunes seem to have changed dramatically since the formation of the alliance 10 days ago. They are the new favourites of Muslims and OBCs.
Much to the chagrin of the BJP, the confident faces of both Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, visible during the roadshows in lucknow and Agra is attracting the young voters.