With the biennial elections for six seats to Rajya Sabha from Tamil Nadu scheduled for February 7, a new picture is emerging in the political landscape of the State.
The elections are necessitated as the terms of SA Jinna, Vasanthi Stanley (both DMK), union minister GK Vasan, former union minister Jayanthi Natarajan (both Congress), TK Rangarajan (CPI(M)) and N Balaganga (AIADMK) are coming to an end.
Going by the present strength of the AIADMK in the legislative Assembly following the 2011 Assembly Elections, the party is all set to sweep five seats leaving just one for the Opposition to fight. The AIADMK has 151 seats in the House which has a total strength of 235. Its allies CPI(M), CPI and AIFB together command 19 seats. The seven members of the Vijayakanth-led DMDK (28) are also in the AIADMK camp though the 'divorce' is yet to be legalised. It will increase the votes in the AIADMK kitty to 177. In the Opposition the DMDK is left with 21 members with Panrutti Ramachandran, the party's senior leader resigning from the House as well as the party. The DMK has 23 members. The Congress (five), MMK, the Islamic outfit (two) and Puthiya Tamilagam (two) are the other players in the House who will play a major role in the political drama emerging out as a prelude to the lok Sabha elections scheduled for May 2014. The Opposition has 56 votes if one is taking into account the three-member PMK. But the PMK has declared that it would not align either with the DMK or the AIADMK. In the June 2013 election to Rajya Sabha, the PMK abstained from voting. The seat represented by Panrutti Ramachandran is lying vacant.
The AIADMK will field four of its candidates and extend support to the lone CPI(M) candidate. This means the AIADMK front will walk away with five seats. Vijayakanth, who is being wooed by the DMK and the Congress to join them for the 2014 lok Sabha Election may demand that the lone Rajya Sabha seat should be given to his party, the DMDK. Vijayakanth has been striving hard to get a Rajya Sabha membership for l K Sudhish, his brother-in-law.
During the June 2013 election to Rajya Sabha from Tamil Nadu, the DMDK had called on for Congress leadership soliciting the party's help in getting A R Elangovan the former's candidate elected to the Upper House. But the Congress decided to cast their lots with the DMK and voted for Kanimozhi, daughter of Karunanidhi. So as an atonement, the Congress and the DMK may have to yield to the demand of Vijayakanth as an act of atonement. The fate of Vasan and Jayanthi Natarajan has been sealed as the DMK is unlikely to vote for the Congress.
Congress, desperately fighting for its survival in Tamil Nadu, is leaving no stone unturned in the run up to the lok Sabha Elections. last week's visit of Ghulam Nabi Azad, the Congress heavyweight, to Karunanidhi's residence and his confession that the DMK was never ever a foe of the Congress should be seen in this context.
Though he said he did not discuss politics with the DMK chief, it is an open secret in Tamil Nadu that he had some message for Karunanidhi from Sonia Gandhi. The Congress and the DMK are jointly courting the DMDK. Stalin, the heir apparent in the DMK and GK Vasan, the Congress leader miss no opportunities to call on Vijayakanth.