The ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu suffered a setback on Thursday when one of the party MLAs breathed his last due to cardiac arrest. With the demise of 66-year-old R Kanakaraj who was representing Sulur constituency in the assembly, the strength of AIADMK has come down to 113 including the Speaker.
This means that the AIADMK should win at least 17 of the 18 Assembly constituencies which go to the by-polls on April 18. The effective strength of the Tamil Nadu Assembly is 234 and the party in power requires 117 for absolute majority. The AIADMK which fought the 2016 Assembly election under the leadership of Jaylalithaa was re- elected with 136 seats. With the demise of Jayalalithaa and the disqualification of 18 party MLAs under the anti-defection law, the strength of the party came down to 118. The by-election to R K Nagar which had been represented by Jayalalithaa was won by TTV Dhinakaran who fought independently. Thus the strength of AIADMK was diminished to 117. The demise of two more MLAs and disqualification of one more MLA who was sentenced by a court of law brought down the strength of the AIADMK to 114.
The party’s position was further weakened by the stance of three MLAs who were elected under the Two Leaves symbol of the AIADMK. These three MLAs would cross over to the Dinakaran or Stalin camp depending on the kind of enticements they get. Hence the AIADMK should win all the Assembly constituencies except Thiruvarur that go to the polls. Thiruvarur , which had been represented by last CM Karunanidhi has been a DMK fortress and it is difficult for the AIADMK to surmount the sympathy wave for the late party patriarch.