Kerala is about 2,250 kilometers away from Delhi by air but the political tremors set off by the stunning electoral victory of the Aam Aadmi Party in the national capital seem to have hit the planning rooms of the main political parties in the State just when they are preparing for the two major elections to be held in less than 14 months – the civic polls in September and the Assembly election in April, 2016.
The two main political fronts –Congress-led ruling UDF and the CPI(M)-headed Opposition lDF – and the BJP had not considered the AAP as a threat when it entered the fray for the first time in the State in the last lok Sabha polls but they now feel that it would be a mistake to take Arvind Kejriwal’s organisation lightly after its Delhi win.
“It is true that the AAP is not a big force in Kerala and that it does not have a solid or coherent organisational base presently but the other parties should understand from its short history that the AAP has a knack of growing imperceptibly,” said a Thiruvananthapuram-based psephologist.
The AAP had launched itself in Kerala in style during its first advent in Delhi but it met with a lot of problems after the resignation of the first Kejriwal Government. It had fielded candidates in 15 of the total 20 seats in the State in the last lok Sabha polls but its performance was not noteworthy except in two constituencies.
However, the situation seems to be changing. The parties that should worry most, according to observers, about the revitalised AAP camp in the State are the CPI(M), whose support base among the youth has got weakened as per its own admission, and the BJP, which had recently modified its poll plan from just opening account in Kerala to capturing power, say observers.
The inability of the CPI(M) to successfully take up the crucial people’s issues has pushed its youth wing DYFI and students’ outfit SFI into functional lethargy and the parent party itself has made observations to this effect several times. Political analysts say that this is the exact reason why the CPI(M) should fear a revitalised AAP.
As per the admission of a senior Kochi-based CPI(M) leader, “Considering the slogans and ideologies, the AAP is not very far from the left and therefore I won’t be surprised if potential young Marxists choose to join that party.”
The CPI(M)’s inability to effectively take up issues concerning environment, water, Adivasis, etc has caused disillusionment among a lot of left-leaning intellectuals in the State and several of them have already joined the AAP. “The first test may come with the panchayat election,” the CPI(M) leader said.
Observers point out that the Kerala BJP, which is positioning itself as the only credible alternative in the State to the “corrupt” UDF and ineffective left which are betraying the people through their “politics of adjustments” as it claims, has enough reasons to worry about a re-energised AAP.
In its goals of opening account in the Assembly and lok Sabha elections in Kerala and the eventual capturing of power, the main asset of the BJP has been its image as a political alternative and its attractiveness to the youth. In both these aspects, the BJP may now have to consider the AAP as a real rival, observers say.
Electoral history shows that AAP cannot be taken lightly as far as the BJP is concerned. AAP’s Anita Pratap, a comparatively unknown figure in Kerala, had bagged 51,517 votes in the Ernakulam lok Sabha seat while senior BJP leader AN Radhakrishnan got only 99,003 votes despite the fact that it was his home constituency and despite the BJP’s long electoral history. .
This and the fact that AAP’s Sarah Joseph scored 44,638 votes in Thrissur while senior BJP leader KP Sreesan got only 1,02,681 votes emboldened environmentalist CR Neelakantan to say, “This should send convince those who refuse to take AAP seriously. If this is the performance BJP with its long history was capable of, I am sure that AAP’s future in Kerala can be bright.”