After a surplus 20 per cent monsoon in June, a dip is projected in certain parts of the country till July 6. However, it is expected to pick up with the first spell between July 6-8 which will be concentrated in North, Central and East India. Rainfall in June is however being regarded as all time best in any persisting El Nino year.
According to India Meterological Department (IMD), rainfall is expected to be 92 per cent of normal in July and 90 per cent of the average in August. Meteorologists attribute this to the weakening of an equatorial system of clouds and disturbances called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).
The MJO is a moving system of wind, cloud and pressure that brings rain as it goes around the equator. MJO circles around the globe in 30-60 days on average. MJO in this process has countered the adverse effect of El Nino, which had strengthened the monsoon in June.
In the coming days, monsoon may be slow till July 6th in most parts of the country. The Western Disturbance will move away from Jammu and Kashmir to the Western Himalayas. Hence, subdued Monsoon is expected over the plains and hills of North India during the first half of next week.
However, Uttarakhand may receive scattered rain and thundershowers. Days are expected to be warm and humid with temperatures following a rising trend, predicted the weather experts.
According to them, there are three spells in July – one between 6th – 8th, the second from 14th-17th, and the third from 23rd – 26th. There’s also a fourth which extends from July 30th spilling to early August.
After the first suppressed spell, rains between 6 – 8 July will be concentrated in North, Central and East India. The hills and plains of North India including most parts of Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and Delhi – NCR will receive widespread Monsoon rains during the period. Northern parts of Rajasthan will however witness mild Monsoon activity during the second half of this week.
Monsoon will also remain active, over West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and northern parts of Odisha could receive isolated heavy showers, particularly on July 6 and 7.