6% monsoon deficit in Aug so far, El Nino effect to worsen scene

The latest deficit of monsoon in the first week of August  stands at 6 per cent. This has increased by 3 per cent from the corresponding figure last week. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the strengthening of El Niño effect on South-West Monsoon which will reduce rain in the last quarter. The reservoirs in the country are, however, 50 per cent full of its total storage capacity. 

According to the official data of IMD, the country as a whole has so far received 468.6 mm of rain as against the normal of 499.8 mm. South Peninsula is the worst hit this season with the highest deficit of 21 per cent. North-Western India is however at a surplus of 5 per cent rain. It has received 342.8 mm of rain as compared to the normal rainfall of 327.1mm.

According to the prediction of IMD, rainfall is likely to increase over eastern and central India from August 10 August onwards. Western Himalayan region would receive fairly wide spread rainfall during the next  five days.  South Peninsula would receive subdued rainfall activity during next 10 days. 

Nonetheless, El Niño will cast its shadow on the over all rainfall in the country. The scientists have predicted 72 per cent probability of El Niño conditions to become strong during the remaining part of the monsoon season, according to them, monsoon during August is likely to be 90 per cent of lPA as was forecast in June. 

Meanwhile, as per the latest figures from the Ministry of Water Resources, the Water Storage Capacity in 91 important reservoirs of the country is 78.366 Billion Cubic Metre (BCM) which is 50 per cent of  the total storage capacity. This storage is 93 per cent of the storage of corresponding period of last year and 99 per cent of storage of average of last ten years. The storage position during current year is better than the storage position of last year and is also better than the storage of average of last ten years.

The northern region having six reservoirs with total storage capacity of 18.01 Billion Cubic Metre (BCM), leads in the country with 81 per cent of total storage capacity of these reservoirs. The central region figures next with 26.53 BCM which is 63 per cent of total storage capacity of 42.30BCM of 12 reservoirs in the region.