By the middle of the century, around 35 million people in India could face annual coastal flooding while by the end of the century 45-50 million will be at risk if carbon emissions are high.
The risks would be far fewer if emissions are lower, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group II report — 'Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability' released on Monday.
The report, released on Monday, has listed India under one of those countries that will be economically hit the most by human-induced climate change.
“This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC while releasing the report ‘Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability'.
“It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks,” Lee said during a virtual press conference.
The report says that India could be one of those countries where heat and humidity would pass limits of human survivability.
The report refers to wet-bulb temperatures, a measure that combines heat and humidity. (A wet-bulb temperature of 31°C is extremely dangerous for humans, while a value of 35°C is unsurvivable for more than about 6 hours, even for fit and healthy adults resting in the shade.)
While Patna and Lucknow are expected to exceed wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C, most of the Indian states and cities could reach dangerous levels by the end of the century.
Climate change would also result in erratic heat and humidity threatening human survivability. Given the range of impacts from climate change, India's food production and food security will also be severely hit. Combined with disasters taking place across the world, this will impact international supply chains, markets, trade and result in economic shocks.
Climate change could also mean that about 40% of people in India will live with water scarcity by 2050 compared with about 33% now. Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins could see increased flooding if warming passes 1.5°C.
India is also seen as the most vulnerable country in terms of crop production, warns the report. Rice, wheat, pulses, coarse and cereal yields could fall almost 9% by 2050. In the South, maize production could decrease 17% if emissions remain
high.
However, the adaptation plans for Indian cities currently focus only on one or two risks while ignoring the compounding nature of disasters such as tropical cyclones coinciding with heatwaves and urban droughts.
As such risks increase, the report says, the adaptive capacity of local communities will be threatened, especially low-income marginalised communities. In his address, United Nations Secretary General Antonnio Gueterres cautioned that global emissions are expected to increase by 14 per cent in the coming decade, which can have catastrophic consequences.
This critically important UN report, authored by 270 scientists from 67 countries and approved by 195 governments, shows that worsening climate impacts are wreaking havoc in every part of the world and are affecting every living thing on the planet – humans, animals, plants, and entire ecosystems. The Working Group II report is the second instalment of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed this year.