Poonch and Kargil have a 90 per cent Muslim population but the past month and a half has not seen a single anti-India agitation in these two districts. In fact, there is a five per cent population of separatist Muslims who, under the fanatics, are stoking anti-India sentiments. They in fact form the base of the Hurriyat’s politics
Kashmir has been in the headlines for the past month and a half. From TV to newspapers, media has given the issue prime importance. But, has the situation in Kashmir really become as inflammatory as it is being portrayed or what the opposition parties are sayingIJ The reality is quite different. Many Kashmiri leaders are unhappy with the ongoing coverage of events in the Valley as they are of the view that the tourism industry has come to a standstill there.
Not without reason, J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti said that only five per cent of the people in the State are creating problems in Kashmir. In fact, only 15 per cent of the whole State is Kashmir; 26 per cent is Jammu and 59 per cent is ladakh. J&K has 22 districts but only five districts are disturbed and there’s a curfew at a few police stations of those five districts; in the rest, only Section 144 has been imposed.
Poonch and Kargil have a 90 per cent Muslim population but for the last month and a half there has not been a single anti-India agitation in these two districts. In fact, there is a five per cent population of separatist Muslims who, under fanatics, are setting fire to anti-India sentiments. They are the base for the Hurriyat’s politics. A large chunk of Sunnis, Shias, Gujjar and Pahadi Muslims are not part of this ongoing agitation.
BJP AND BRAHMIN VOTES
The Congress and the BSP seem to have got the BJP working in UP. Both parties are vying for Brahmin votes which has compelled the BJP to play the same game but in its own style. The first manoeuvring of the BJP was to retain Kalraj Mishra in the Modi Cabinet even though he is aged 75. He is one of the Brahmin heavyweights of the BJP in UP. In an election year, had he been removed, its effect would have been felt on the party workers.
The second big game of the BJP is to take Brajesh Pathak along. He has been an MP from the BSP twice and till last Sunday, he was a part of Mayawati’s show of strength at Agra. But he left the BSP and joined the BJP the very next day. In almost all the areas of UP, especially Hardoi and Unnao, he has a huge influence and can be useful for the BJP. Before elections, the BJP will put forward its Brahmin leaders especially Central Ministers like Kalraj Mishra, Mahesh Sharma and Mahendra Nath Pandey. At the same time, it’s also being said that the main focus of the BJP is the non-Yadav OBC voters. But it is also true that the BJP will not leave the core vote bank of the forward castes. The sources in the BJP say that if the party doesn’t try for Brahmin votes then the benefit will ultimately go to the Congress and BSP.
CONGRESS UNSURE OF AMNESTY
Congress leaders are in a dilemma not only on the Kashmir issue but also on the controversy related to the human rights organisation Amnesty International India also. Generally, Congress leaders have supported the organisation but Rahul Gandhi has been keeping mum.
It is to be noted that Amnesty International India had recently organised a conference in Bangalore where some youth from Kashmir had also participated. Anti-India slogans and slogans in support of freedom for Kashmir were raised in that conference. The ABVP has been staging massive protests against it and the BJP has made it a big issue. At the start, the Congress stayed silent but later its leaders supported Amnesty.
When people tried to book Amnesty under sedition charges, the Congress Government in Karnataka vehemently opposed the move. But, Rahul has neither tweeted nor issued any statement. It seems that he has taken a lesson from the JNU episode. He had reached JNU to support the students after anti-India slogans were raised on campus. This act had become a hot topic for massive criticism. And this is the reason why this time he is keeping mum.
BSP CONSIDERING SOCIAl MEDIA
It’s election time in UP and people are saying that this time the BSP is also gearing up to open its account on the social media though it doesn’t usually give much importance to even the traditional media. last time, when Mayawati was Chief Minister, she had distributed a lot of Government advertisements but didn’t pay much attention on the advertisements from the BSP. On any big issue, either Mayawati addresses a press conference or the party issues a statement. That statement never happens in the name of any particular leader. In the past few days, after Swami Prasad Maurya left the party, Nasimuddin Siddiqui has become active in media to some extent.
However, since the youth are very active on social media, the party may give some relaxation to its hard and fast rules. Some BSP leaders are aware that almost every young person is using smart phones and is active on the social media. Also, all other major parties like the BJP, the Congress and the SP have good social media presence. So, it is almost a necessity for the BSP too.
If Mayawati gives permission then all office bearers and candidates can create their accounts so that they can connect with the maximum number of youth. For the last few months, Mayawati herself has become very active on the social media and has started replying to media questions.
CONGRESS WANTS TO FIGHT BJP
Congress is trying to get its foothold in UP and in this endeavour, the party is trying to create a scenario of a direct contest with the BJP. The Congress can get Muslim votes only when it gives such a message of a direct fight with the BJP. Apart from that, with this strategy the Congress can go into a post-poll alliance with either the BSP or the SP.
This is the reason why Sonia Gandhi held a road show in Modi’s constituency , Varanasi. Despite being ill she went to Varanasi and returned in an air ambulance from there. Now, Congress leaders are of the view that the strategy has been successful. They are saying that people have started listening to the Congress and there is a growing sympathy for the Gandhi family.
Knowingly or unknowingly, the BJP is also helping strengthen this strategy of the Congress. It is being said that the PM will soon be addressing a rally in the constituency of Sonia Gandhi. During the lok Sabha elections, he had addressed a rally at Rahul’s constituency, Amethi. Now he will address one at Rai Bareily and reply to Sonia’s road show. Under this strategy, Rahul has also been targeting Modi on Twitter for the last few days.
KEJRIWAl SNUBS CONGRESS
Arvind Kejriwal has become a cause of concern for the Congress. He has replaced the Congress in Delhi and is trying to be an alternative to it. He is directly fighting with the BJP and the motive is to replace the Congress.
Recently, Kejriwal was in Goa for three days and in all his rallies he said that his fight was only with the BJP as the Congress was nowhere in the race.
In Punjab, the AAP’s campaign has designed in such a way that it would push the Congress on the margins. The AAP is opposing the BJP and Akali alliance and party workers are trying to sneak into the vote bank of the Congress. Kejriwal has become active in Gujarat for the last few days. There also, he is trying to create space for his party against the BJP. People are saying that if the AAP performs well in Punjab then party will also fight the Himachal elections.
It is interesting that Kejriwal has chosen only those States where there is no existence of regional parties or the BJP has good hold. In fact, he is trying to place AAP as an alternative to the Congress in those states and it is obviously why the Congress leaders are worried. Now, the Congress is sending its leaders of Delhi to Punjab so that they can expose Kejriwal. The Congress leaders feel that their predicament will not come to an end till Kejriwal faces defeat in Delhi. The Congress is putting all its might behinjd the MCD elections so that the AAP can be stopped.