Two months ago, people thought that the Governments in Delhi and Tamil Nadu would collapse. However, now that wave has died down. Both State Governments are now seeming stable and running effectively. All controversial issues have been sidelined. In Delhi, CM Arvind Kejriwal is concentrating on governance. Recently, he visited Government hospitals and held Janta Durbars as well. But the leaders of parties in power in the two states are claiming that this is just the calm before the storm.
These days, social media is abuzz with the joke that Kapil Mishra has done a Manmohan Singh on Kejriwal. Kejriwal, who has mastered the art of creating hullabaloo on every issue, is keeping mum. Mishra, who used to be the most vocal leader of the AAP, has been shunted from the party and the rest of the leaders are keeping quiet.
The infighting within the party has also been buried, on the face of it.
Many AAP leaders say this calm will continue for only a few days. Everyone is waiting for two things: The final outcome of the case of chair of profit in which 21 MlAs are facing charges, and the result of Bawana byelection. Victory or defeat of Ved Prakash, who had joined the BJP after leaving the AAP, will be decisive for many things. If the BJP wins this seat, then there would be stampede in the AAP. Though many leaders feel that the BJP is not offensive like earlier and Kejriwal has found time to unite his party. Anything can happen after the March result, but now revolt in the party is not possible.
In the same manner, it seems the BJP is keeping quiet in Tamil Nadu. It is being said that the party has taken a step back due to the Presidential Elections. In the meantime, the AIADMK and its jailed leader Sasikala have found time to consolidate their position. It is being said that around one and a half dozen MlAs have returned. Sasikala’s nephew, TTV Dinakaran, met her after he was released on bail. Sasikala has assured her near and dear ones that everything will be fine after a few days. So, there is no chance of a revolt in the AIADMK at the moment.
TUG OF WAR IN PUDUCHERRY
The lt Governor of Puducherry, Kiran Bedi, has suddenly become active. After the V Narayanasamy Government took charge in the State, there is palpable tension between the CM and lt Governor. These days, Bedi is busy meeting people, hearing their problems, and giving instructions to officials.
What is interesting is that whatever is transpiring in Puducherry, the information is being relayed to Delhi — be it to officials or journalists.
The general thought is that even though Bedi could not ensure the BJP’s victory as a CM candidate, she hasn’t lost sight of her ultimate goal — the chair of Delhi CM. After the defeat of the AAP, the BJP became active in order to grab power in Delhi and this was the time when Bedi also became active.
On the other hand, this manoeuvring has increased the tension between her and Narayanasamy. On the complaint of a DMK MlA, Narayanasamy has given a harsh statement, saying that if the l-G goes to his constituency without prior intimation, he would vociferously oppose that. This must be noted that Bedi is going to every constituency and meeting people, even travelling on a cycle! In a reply to Narayanasamy, Bedi said she is not a rubber stamp l-G.
POSSIBIlITY OF THIRD FRONT
In India, the Third Front comes into existence before every election. This has been a trend for decades. This time again, there is an attempt to form amahagathbandhan against the BJP — that means there is an attempt to take the parties of the second and third front on board. But there is least chance for this. Despite all the manoeuvring, the Third Front will be there and preparations have started for that.
For the mahagathbandhan, the CPM leaders are most active. But sources in the party say they won’t go with Mamata Banerjee. They are saying that electoral politics is quite different from extending support for Presidential Elections. There is a bleak possibility that the two parties would fight together.
In the same manner, the BSP and SP will not go together. Mayawati will only extend her support till she gets a Rajya Sabha seat. After that, in all probability, she will go alone in the elections. A BSP leader says that if she goes for the lok Sabha Elections as a part of the grand alliance, she would not get more than
20-25 seats. If the BSP performs well, then she won’t win any more than 10-12 seats. But if she fields candidates on 80 seats, she will get double benefit.
In the same manner, in Delhi, the Congress has said that the AAP is the ‘B’ team of the BJP. So there is no chance that the AAP will come in the front led by the Congress. The BJD of Odisha and the AIADMK of Tamil Nadu will not become a part of the mahagathbandhan. That is why it is being said that the Third Front will continue. If Mamata goes with the Congress, then the left, AAP, BSP and BJD will come together, and if the left goes with the Congress, then Mamata, the AAP, Mayawati and
Naveen Patnaik will form a Third Front.
CONG DIlEMMA IN HARYANA
The Congress is in a dilemma in Haryana. Earlier it was being said that the name of former CM, BS Hooda, has been finalised and an announcement can be made anytime. But now it is being said that the Congress high command has not finalised any name and is thinking about handing over the reins to a Dalit in place of Ashok Tanwar. That is why the name of Rajya Sabha MP Selja Kumari is being discussed. Though most of the leaders are demanding that the command be given to Hooda, and that he is made powerful just like Captain Amarinder Singh is in Punjab.
Sources in the Congress say that if any Dalit is given command of the State, then Hooda, as a strong Jat leader, will be the CM candidate. But leaders close to Hooda say that the CM candidate will be announced at the time of elections, and by that time, the Congress would be in bad condition in the State. They are saying that the Chautala family is trying to take over the space of Jat politics and if the Congress does not hand over the command to Hooda immediately, then the party will get a big jolt in Jat politics.
The party is also worried about the ongoing investigations against Hooda by central agencies, and the high command is afraid that the former CM might be arrested anytime. That also explains the Congress dilemma in the State.