In her speech on September 26, Sushma has to prove that Pakistan is a terrorist state. She has to make a direct attack on Pakistan for Uri and Pathankot attacks, and shift the focus on PoK and Balochistan as well. Isolating Pakistan in the world community is the first step of actions against the rogue state
When Pakistani terrorists attacked the Army camp in Jammu and Kashmir’s Uri, India’s Vice-President, Hamid Ansari, was in Venezuela for the NAM conference. He raised the issue of terrorism and directly attacked Pakistan, stating that “there is a country in this region that is weakening the fight against terrorism”.
Before that, PM Narendra Modi took on Pakistan on two international platforms. At the conference of G-20 countries and later at the conference of ASEAN and East Asian countries, Modi called Pakistan an exporter of terrorism. In the bilateral meetings with the President of Afghanistan and Prime Minister of Nepal also, Modi brought up Pakistan and reiterated the need to fight terrorism.
Now, the onus is on External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj. She has a huge responsibility on her shoulders because Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif has raised the Kashmir issue at UNGA. Sharif — who delivered his speech before Sushma — also touched upon the issue of separatist organisations. In her speech on September 26, Sushma has to prove that Pakistan is a terrorist state. She has to make a direct attack on Pakistan for Uri and Pathankot attacks, and shift the focus on PoK and Balochistan as well. Isolating Pakistan in the world community is the first step of actions against the rogue state; this strategy was devised in the meeting following the recent attack.
SUSPENSE OVER SAARC MEET
There seems to be some suspense over the SAARC conference, which is scheduled to be held in Pakistan in November. There were some indications towards this when Rajnath Singh went to Pakistan last month. Tension between both countries was evident during Rajnath’s tour, and that gave the signal that India could keep distance from the SAARC conference. Soon after his tour, India didn’t send Arun Jaitley to Pakistan to attend the Finance Ministers’ conference. Instead, Shaktikanta Das represented India at the meeting.
After that there were speculations about Modi’s visit to Pakistan. The Indian High Commissioner in Pakistan, Gautam Bambawale, indicated that Modi was willing to come to Islamabad, but the MEA immediately said the PM’s schedule was not fixed. Now, it seems that the PM will not go.
After the Uri attack, it’s highly unlikely that the PM will go to Pakistan. last year, when Modi went there, he and his Government had faced a lot of criticism. Pakistan has given a bizarre reaction after the Uri attack and it is highly unlikely Modi will go there now. And if the head of any of the countries doesn’t participate in the conference, it will be cancelled. There is no provision to send representatives to this conference. This had happened at the time of Kargil too.
EARlY WINTER SESSIONIJ
Parliament’s Winter Session and the next Budget Session might be called before schedule, and the Central Government is gearing for
this. Probably, the Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs will discuss this issue in October. This committee headed by Home Minister Rajnath Singh may recommend holding the Winter Session a bit early. The Centre wants to get the GST Bill passed as soon as possible so that it can be implemented from April 1, 2017.
The GST council had its first meeting in Delhi on September 22 and 23, and has prepared a blueprint to take it forward. The Government has prepared the draft for States and central GST, and in the next one and a half month will try to build consensus on it. After that, the Winter Session will probably start in the first or second week of November. Normally, the Winter Session starts in the third week of November and ends before Christmas. After this the Budget Session is convened, which starts with the President’s address.
If sources are to be believed, this time the Government wants to present the Budget before the end of February. PM Modi wants permission for the Budget, which is to be implemented from April 1, to be taken in March instead of May.
VACANT RAJYA SABHA SEATS
Election has been announced for one vacant Rajya Sabha seat from Madhya Pradesh. The seat has been vacated after the resignation of Najma Heptulla and polling will be done on October 7. This seat will undisputedly go to the BJP. After election, the remaining term of that seat will be around one and a half year. But for this one seat, there are many candidates from the BJP.
The most vocal Muslim face of BJP, Shahnawaz Hussain, is said to be the frontrunner for this seat. Sources say that Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has already given consent on his name, but the final decision will be taken by Modi and Amit Shah.
The close aides of Shahnawaz point out that all leaders who were ministers in the Vajpayee Government have been adjusted in the present Government, except him. This must be noted that he was defeated in lok Sabha by a small margin.
The other seat of Rajya Sabha is from the nominated quota. This has been vacated after the resignation of Navjot Singh Sidhu, and full term of this seat is remaining. Some journalists and social activists are also in the running for this seat. There are speculations that this seat will go to someone from UP, so the party can benefit in the Assembly Elections.
CONG EYES DAlIT VOTES
The events in Punjab in the past one month seem to have shaken the confidence of the Congress. Now the party thinks that it can benefit from a four-cornered fight. Sources say the party expects four divisions of Jat Sikh votes. Parkash Singh Badal will get votes of Jat Sikhs who are supporters of Akali and Panthik politics, and Sidhu will also cut some votes from them. Some of the Jat Sikh votes will go to the Congress in the name of Capt Amarinder Singh, and if AAP fields any Sikh face, some votes will go there.
In the past few days, the situation of AAP has gone from bad to worse. Though the party is still a big force in the State, the Sucha Singh episode, allegations of selling tickets, and the alleged sex scandals of AAP MlAs have made a dent in the party’s image. That is why the Congress is upbeat.
On the other hand, Punjab has more Dalit votes than any other
State. Around 33 per cent voters in the State are Dalits, and they have been the core voters of the Congress. The party believes that if majority Dalit votes come to them, victory is theirs. But what is interesting is that AAP is also dependent on the Dalit and Hindu vote bank. Then there are NRI votes, and the Congress and AAP are eying those too.
STAR CAMPAIGNERS IN UP
In 2007, when Mulayam Singh Yadav was the CM of UP, Amitabh Bachchan was roped in for campaigning. Despite Big B’s claim that the crime graph was going down, Mulayam’s party was badly defeated. In the last elections, the Samajwadi Party kept a distance from Bollywood stars. But this time, just before elections, CM Akhilesh Yadav has made Vidya Balan the face of UP Government.
This time again, film stars will campaign en masse when the campaign of the Government ends and the code of conduct comes into effect. last time, Amar Singh was not with the SP. This time, he has returned and if he stays put till the elections, then his close aide, Jaya Prada, might be a part of the star campaigners along with Jaya Bachchan.
The Congress has given the State president post to film star Raj Babbar, and many of his star colleagues might campaign for the party.
From the BJP, it seems that Smriti Irani will be active in UP. She can be utilised in Amethi and Raebareli to counter Priyanka Gandhi. Film stars who are fans of Modi, such as Ajay Devgan and Vivek Oberoi, might also be roped in.
IN THE GRIP OF AGITATION
One more BJP-ruled State is in the grip of caste and social agitation. Marathas have taken out a strong demonstration in Maharashtra. The most socially and economically affluent caste of Maharashtra is now demanding reservation. The protestors have primarily two demands: They want the alleged Dalit rapist of a Maratha girl hanged, and secondly, they want reservation. The protestors claim they are not anti-Brahmins or anti-Dalits. But the Brahmin CM of the State, Devendra Fadnavis, feels this agitation is being triggered deliberately and has alleged that Sharad Pawar is behind all this.
Maharashtra is the fourth BJP-ruled State where the most powerful caste has come out against the Government. This is not mere coincidence that the BJP has broken the old political tradition in all these four States. Barring one or two exceptions, the CMs of these States had always been from the most powerful caste. However, the BJP has broken this tradition; it gave the command of Maharashtra to a Brahmin where Marathas are most powerful. In the Patel dominated Gujarat, the BJP made a Jain incharge. In Haryana, where a Jat used to be CM, the BJP gave the command to a Punjabi. In Jharkhand, a leader from the Vaishya community has been given the reins. And now there is agitation in all these States.
Recently, there was an agitation in Jharkhand over the CNT Act. No one can forget the Jat agitation of Haryana. The nation also saw what the Patels did in Gujarat. It will be interesting to see how the BJP tackles the most powerful communities of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana and Jharkhand.