Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi intends to repeat the formula for ticket distribution that he had applied in Karnataka. Interestingly, this was the same formula which was used in the recent Assembly elections as well. And except in Chhattisgarh, it had backfired everywhere.
Sources attributed the failure to the internal dissension among the leaders. This time, Rahul is expected to assign responsibilities and tickets to new leaders, particularly the youth. The consent of the block, district and State presidents has also been included in it. Before finalising a candidate, his age, ability, background and reputation will be closely observed. This formula has worried many senior leaders who used to traditionally distribute the party tickets.
MPs TO BE DISQUAlIFIED
Sitting MPs of both the Congress and the BJP dread a threat to their tickets. Both the parties are going to apply formulae which will disqualify half of their MPs. Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi are personally monitoring the processes of ticket distribution with feedback from their independent sources.
Rahul will discard tainted and inactive MPs as well as elderly leaders. His close aides cite the example of the 43 sitting MlAs who were allotted tickets on the behest of former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit but eventually 35 of them were defeated.
likewise, as the BJP sources claim, half of the sitting MPs might not be given tickets this time. In what can be seen as a historic move, the party may put new candidates in 50 seats and also change 50 per cent of the candidates on those seats where they had come second.
BJP Versus AAP
When the AAP formed Government in Delhi, the whole country reeled under its current. Predictions are rife of a direct confrontation between the AAP and the BJP. The AAP leaders in Maharashtra claim that several members from the Congress, MNS and Shiv Sena are all set to join them. likewise in Uttar Pradesh, leaders from the Congress, Samajwadi Party and the BSP have joined the party. And from Kerala to West Bengal, leaders of the left parties have also joined the AAP.
Pre-poll surveys in Delhi, Mumbai and their suburbs indicate that in 21 seats of these areas, Narendra Modi is the first choice for the post of the Prime Minister followed by Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi.
MOIlY faces ire
While Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh are confident of Veerappa Moily, Jairam Ramesh and Jayanthi Natarajan hold their grudges against him. Environment Minister Moily has given clearance to 70 projects worth over Rs 1.5 lakh crores in just 20 days, much to the alleged disappointment of the two former Environment Ministers.
They had been the ministers in the same department for the first four-and-a-half years of the UPA-II Government but were facing allegations of sternness that had eventually blocked many projects. Though both the ministers have always refuted the allegations, Moily’s swift announcement suggests otherwise. Narendra Modi had also attacked Natarajan, alleging that she had imposed the ‘Jayanthi Tax’ for the clearance of files from the Environment and Forest Ministry.
PAWAR’S PRESSURE politics
For the last three elections, the Congress and the NCP have been following the same seat-sharing formula: The Congress fights in 26 seats and the NCP in 22. But after the relatively poor performance of the NCP in the last election, the Congress is demanding more seats. State Congress president Manik Rao Thakre has repeatedly asked to change the old formula. The other leaders of the Congress have also been demanding that only 20 seats be given to the NCP.
It is in this backdrop that Sharad Pawar has started questioning the policies of the Congress-led UPA Government. He was particularly critical of the party after its defeat in the recent Assembly elections. He indicated that if need be, he would campaign himself in the State and his party would fight alone. He also tried to connect with other regional stalwarts. Eventually, the Congress had to acknowledge that the old formula would be maintained.
DIGGY VS CHIDAMBARAM
P Chidambaram believes that the official announcement of Rahul Gandhi’s prime ministerial candidature should be made without any delay, though Digvijay Singh harbours his own share of doubts over it.
Singh sees no urgency in making the announcement and is urging the party to not be entangled in the Modi vs Rahul net and believes that the Congress need not emulate the BJP which has already fought five elections after announcing the name of its prime ministerial candidate. However, Rahul’s ardent supporters, including Mahila Congress president Shobha Ozha, are preparing a proposal for the announcement during the AICC session.
AAP’s OPEN CHAllENGE
The AAP is preparing strategies for the 2014 lok Sabha elections, especially in the States where the Congress is weak or expected to suffer a total defeat due to the anti-incumbency factor. It is also ready to fight for all the 48 seats in Maharashtra where the Congress and the NCP have been ruling for the last 15 years, as well as in those States where the BJP is expected to be doing well. Both the BJP and the Shiv Sena perceive the AAP as a big challenge.
The AAP is likely to contest on all seats in Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. And, it is likely to put candidates in at least 10 seats in Karnataka.