The bugle has been blown for Bihar elections. On one hand, the BJP called a workers’ meet to announce this, and on the other, leaders of the Janata family met in Delhi to show their preparedness. It is certain that this time the fight will be between the BJP and Janata family. All the other parties will stick to either side. Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha are with the BJP, and Jitan Ram Manjhi is expected to join in sooner or later. The Congress is with the Janata family, and the left too will join them.
That is why one interesting question has arisen: What will be the formula for ticket distribution in the two rival groupsIJ Sources say alliance partners have demanded 100 seats from the BJP. They want the BJP to fight on 143 seats, leaving the remaining seats for Paswan, Kushwaha and Manjhi. If the BJP puts more pressure, they can leave 10 more seats, but this means they will need 90 seats at any cost. This, when the BJP wants to fight on more and more seats so it can emerge as the largest party and reach near majority. If that happens, the BJP will be less dependent on its partners.
In the Janata family faction, the Congress wants Nitish Kumar and lalu Prasad Yadav to take 100 seats each, and leave 43 seats for them. And if the left joins in, Congress leaders want all three parties to leave some seats from their respective quotas. But there is a loophole in this formula. The Janata family doesn’t want to leave more than 25 seats for the Congress. Moreover, seat-sharing formula between the RJD and JDU has not been finalised yet.
CHAllENGES FOR KSHATRAPAS
There are signs of danger for all regional stalwarts of the Congress, BJP and left. In almost all parts of the country, many new kshatrapas have emerged who are posing challenges for national as well as regional parties. Parties that ignored them in the beginning are now taking them seriously. Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) in Assam, All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Maharashtra and Telangana, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) in Bihar and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi have posed big challenges for leaders. In the elections of Bodoland Territorial Council, Hagrama Mohilari’s BPF won. The BJP, which was fighting for the first time, couldn’t do much, and the Congress, that had won three seats last time, could not win even a single seat. The real fight was between Mohilari’s BPF and Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
On the Bandra East seat in Mumbai, AIMIM gave a tough fight to the Congress and Shiv Sena. After seeing the strength of AIMIM, the Sena became so upset that it demanded revocation of Muslims’ voting rights. In UP, Asaduddin Owaisi is giving sleepless nights to Samajwadi Party leaders. In Bihar, HAM is in a position to tackle both the JDU and BJP. Before this, Arvind Kejriwal’s party swept out the BJP and Congress in Delhi. In the elections of Bihar and other States, these kshatrapas might gain more strength.
DOUBlE WORRY FOR BJP
The BJP has to worry about Subramanian Swamy and Ram Jethmalani as they, willingly or unwillingly, seem to have opened front against the Central Government. The moment Swamy didn’t get any assignment at the Centre, sources say, it became obvious that he would create problems for the Government. This is proving to be true now. Swamy said he will challenge the Rafale deal with French company Dassault. He had earlier cautioned the Prime Minister against the deal.
Apart from this, Swamy demanded a separate national executive of the BJP to discuss the Ram temple, Article 370 and the ban on beef. His demand will not be fulfilled, but he will continue to raise these issues and create problems for the Government.
Coming to Jethmalani, there are two issues dear to him. He has put the Government in the dock over black money. In every court hearing, he says something sensational against the Government. His attacks on Arun Jaitley jeopardise the Government’s image. National Judicial Appointment Commission, the system which will replace the collegium system to appoint judges, is the other issue close to his heart. During the hearing of the matter before the Constitution Bench, he will oppose the Government.
STIll STUCK ON lAND BIll
The Government is in a dilemma over the land Bill. It seems that the Government will not try to get it passed in the second leg of Parliament Session. Sources say the Government is not confident of getting it passed in Rajya Sabha. The way the Opposition has unified against the Bill, it seems impossible to get it passed. That is why it is being said that the Government will work on the Ordinance instead of putting it on the table of Rajya Sabha, and later a joint session of Parliament will be called for it.
This plan is evident from the BJP’s preparation. Party President Amit Shah is starting the Maha Sampark Abhiyan. He has told more than 10 crore party members that they must clear the picture on the Bill to the 125 crore countrymen. Now, it is being speculated that this campaign will continue till the end of May. Only after that will the Government get the Bill passed.
However, there is doubt over this scheme also. Many leaders feel that getting the Bill passed as early as possible will give a befitting reply to the Opposition. If the issue stretches till the end of May, the debate inside and outside Parliament will have an impact on Bihar, where elections are scheduled in November. So, most of the leaders feel that something must be done at the earliest.
DISAPPOINTMENT GAlOREIJ
Disappointment can be seen clearly on the faces of BJP leaders. leaders who want a ministerial berth and promotion have to wait for some more time. Some leaders who want to be included in Amit Shah’s team will also have to wait. Because despite all the speculations, neither has the Cabinet expansion happened nor have any changes been executed in Shah’s team.
Some had said that the Cabinet expansion was almost certain on April 8. Some people even started congratulating Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi as there was news that he would become a Cabinet minister. Similarly, Rajiv Pratap Rudy and Manoj Sinha were also on cloud nine. Ashwini Chaubey had also apparently started preparations for the oath-taking ceremony.
Shahnawaz Hussain was getting wishes as there was speculation that he would become a minister. Though it has been almost decided that Shahnawaz will get a Rajya Sabha seat from Madhya Pradesh, which is being vacated by Najma Heptullah. It is being said that Shivraj Singh Chouhan has endorsed his candidature.
Shah has not made any expansion in the party organisation despite vacancies for the past six months.
Four or five new general secretaries have to be appointed and at least two vice-presidents are also required. Also, assignments of general secretaries and vice-presidents have to be changed. But this has been pending for months. leaders like Om Mathur, Arjun Munda, Anurag Thakur and Kailash Vijayvargiya might be included in Shah’s team as general secretaries.
lEFT UNITY IN VIZAG
The 21st Congress of the largest communist party in the country, CPM, was held in Visakhapatnam, and more than 300 leaders of the party’s politburo, central committee and State committees had assembled there. The six-day-long Congress ended today, and the party was expected to elect its new general secretary. Politburo member Sitaram Yechury is said to be the first choice for this post.
Some big decisions on left unity are also expected. For the past few months, left parties have been discussing this. CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat is the tallest leader with the purest outlook on ideology.
But he also wants unity among all left parties of the country. Though it is true that it was during his tenure that this unity was destroyed. The left Front in West Bengal doesn’t exist anymore, and the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) took a separate path.
But now Karat and other leaders want a united left Front comprising all left parties. leaders of CPI, CPI (Ml), and Forward Bloc were also invited for the CPM Congress. Possibly, a front will be made with all these parties, and next year, the CPM will fight to save its existence. If the party doesn’t form the Government in Kerala and its performance doesn’t get better, then it will be in a fix. So, it is possible that the CPM, CPI, CPI (Ml), Forward Bloc, RSP and SUCI will join hands.