In the past six months, many ministers have been from Rajya Sabha, but interestingly most of them have not come from their home States. Even in the latest Cabinet expansion, some of the ministers are non-parliamentarians but most of them will reach Parliament from different States
Ever since the BJP Government has come to power at the Centre, there is no boundary of States for Rajya Sabha. In the past six months, many ministers have been from Rajya Sabha, but interestingly most of them have not come from their home States. Even in the latest Cabinet expansion, some of the ministers are non-parliamentarians but most of them will reach Parliament from different States. Only Birendra Singh will be elected to Rajya Sabha from his home State Haryana. Former CM of Goa has been made the Defence Minister. He will be elected from the lone seat of Uttar Pradesh, which has been vacated recently. Election will be held for 10 Rajya Sabha seats from UP on November 20, of which the BJP will get one.
Likewise, Suresh Prabhu will enter Rajya Sabha from Haryana. Two seats have been vacated in Haryana. Of the two, Birendra Singh was MP from one seat and he will be elected again.
INLD leader Ranbir Singh Prajapati was also Rajya Sabha MP but in the last Assembly Elections, he became an MLA. From this seat, Suresh Prabhu, who hails from Maharashtra, will be sent to Rajya Sabha. For both these seats, separate notifications will be issued, so both will go to the BJP. Before this, two non-parliamentarians had been made ministers. Nirmala Sitharaman came from her home State, but Prakash Javadekar made an entry into Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh.
FAITH ON PEOPLE WITH CLEAN IMAGE
Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to have included many people in his first Cabinet reshuffle out of political compulsion. But despite that, he has preferred people with a clean image. In May, he had given big responsibilities to new faces in his Cabinet. In the same manner, this time he has put forward leaders who are hard working, thus trying to avoid any blot on his Government.
In the UPA Government, AK Antony managed the responsibilities of the defence ministry for more than seven years. He had a clean image but could hardly take any decisions. Thus, the situation of the Army got worse. But in the first five months of Modi Government, the defense ministry took speedy decisions. And now Modi has given the responsibility of the ministry to Manohar Parrikar, who is known as Mr Clean. As long as he continues as the defence minister, there will hopefully be no controversy or scams. But it will be interesting to see whether any big decision is taken or Antony part 2 is repeated.
Likewise, Suresh Prabhu — who has a clean image — has been given the rail ministry. He was removed from the Vajpayee Cabinet; at that time he was a minister from Shiv Sena quota. It is said that the main reason behind his removal was his honesty and transparency. Among the new faces, the PM has chosen Mahesh Sharma, MP of Noida; Jayant Sinha, MP of Hazaribagh; and former Olympian Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore for ministerial berths. Modi believes these ministers will keep the image of the Government clean and better its performance.
BIHAR POLITICS CENTRE SHIFTING
Many inferences can be drawn from the first Cabinet expansion. One of the indications pertains to the future changes in the politics of Bihar. In Bihar, the BJP has been under the full command of Sushil Modi. Former deputy CM Sushil Modi, who is the undisputed leader of the party there, thinks he is the obvious candidate for the CM’s post.
He was okay with the leaders who had been included in Modi Cabinet earlier, but he was highly opposed to the names of Giriraj Singh and Rajiv Pratap Rudy. That was the reason why both the leaders had not been included in the Cabinet. But in his first expansion of the council of ministers, the PM has inducted both of them and given them important responsibilities.
Giriraj Singh, who had landed up in many controversies including one involving an inflammatory speech, has been made minister of State, while Rudy has been made a minister of State but with independent charge. With this move, it seems that an attempt has been made to balance the politics of Bihar. But Sushil Modi has succeeded to manage the continuation of Radha Mohan Singh, who is said to be very close to the deputy CM of Bihar. It was almost certain that the portfolio of Radha Mohan Singh would be changed, but Sushil Modi lobbied for him and persuaded everyone that he was crucial for Bihar politics.
Giriraj Singh, Rudy and Ram Kripal Yadav are known to work independently, so a strong Radha Mohan Singh at the Centre is a must for Sushil Modi’s politics. Despite this, the presence of Giriraj Singh, Rudy and Ram Kripal at the Centre is an indication that the centre of Bihar politics has started shifting.
REGIONAL PARTIES VS BJP
Though the BJP is targeting the Congress, it is a fact that for the next three years, regional parties are BJP’s main opponents as elections are scheduled in States where regional parties are in power. BJP leaders are fully aware of this challenge. The BJP might have to form alliances with regional parties in these States. That is the reason why probable partners are being identified. The BJP has made a pact with Sudesh Mahto’s party AJSU in Jharkhand. Many things will depend on the result of this. Besides Jharkhand, the BJP has formed a strategic partnership in Jammu and Kashmir. That model will be tried in some more States in the future. In both these States, the BJP’s fight is not with Congress but with regional parties.
Next year, election is scheduled in Bihar, and the Congress will not be the main opponent of the BJP. Even if a grand alliance is formed, the Congress will be of least importance. The real fight will be with the JDU and RJD. Next to next year, elections are scheduled in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In West Bengal, the fight will be with the TMC and Left. In Tamil Nadu, DMK and AIADMK will be the main opponents. Of course, the Congress will be an opponent in Assam, but in Kerala, parties like the Congress, IUML and Kerala Congress will be in the fray.
In 2017, UP will be the main battlefield where the BJP will fight the SP and BSP. If the BJP breaks away from Akali Dal in Punjab, both parties will be fighting against each other. Direct fight against the Congress will only be in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
CONGRESS PROSPECTS IN BIHAR
The Congress has forged a grand alliance in Bihar, but the million dollar question is whether it will continue or break as now the socialist parties have come together. Leaders of the JDU, JDS, RJD and SP had a meeting at Mulayam Singh Yadav’s residence in Delhi and after the meeting Bihar’s former CM gave a statement. In fact, the statement of Nitish Kumar was an indication of the possibility that the parties could merge. Apart from this, the SP has started talking to Left parties. CPM Politburo member Sitaram Yechury had also praised the efforts made by these parties.
If the descendent parties of old Janta Dal come together again and an alliance is put in place with Left parties, what will the Congress do? Obviously, the coming together of socialist parties is a dangerous sign for the Congress.
Leaders who are trying for this want Modi’s Congress free India campaign to be successful so that these parties could be front-runners. The first meeting was so successful that the socialist leaders are in contact with some more regional parties. One of the leaders says that as Jan Sangh or BJP had been included in the combined front against the Congress, the Congress would also be welcome if it wants to do the same.
ORGANISATIONAL CHANGES IN BJP
Amit Shah will have to either make changes in his organisation or increase the responsibilities of his present officials. Two senior general secretaries of his team — JP Nadda and Rajiv Pratap Rudy — have become ministers at the Centre. Before this, one of the spokespersons of Shah’s team, Lalitha Kumaramangalam, was sent to the NCW as chairperson. Her place is still vacant and no other spokesperson has been appointed.
It is certain that the number of general secretaries will increase. Nadda and Rudy had important responsibilities: Nadda was incharge of Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Apart from this, he was member secretary of the BJP parliamentary board. He will continue on that post, but he has to relinquish the responsibilities of general secretary.
Rudy had been made incharge of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. As per BJP’s strategy, Tamil Nadu is quite important as Assembly Elections are scheduled there in 2016. So, Shah has to appoint someone as soon as possible.
MODI, SHAH EYEING YADAV VOTES
Modi is keeping an eye on the vote bank of Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar. Modi and Shah have started working on the plan to persuade the Yadavs, who form the largest population in Bihar. Under this strategy, first Bhupendra Yadav was made incharge of Bihar and then Ram Kripal Yadav was given a ministerial berth at the Centre. Lalu had never given a ministerial berth to Ram Kripal. When Lalu didn’t give him a ticket, he left the RJD and joined the BJP. Ram Kripal fought from Patliputra seat on a BJP ticket and defeated Lalu’s daughter Misa Bharti. No one knows whether it is a mere coincidence or a strategy that Rudy — who defeated Rabri — and Ram Kripal — who defeated Misa — have been made ministers by Modi.