The decision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to demonetise `500 and `1,000 notes has had an affect in the political sphere of the country as well. Many equations have changed and new ones are forming — one of these includes Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. He has in-principle supported the decision of demonetisation and has also praised the PM for his move. He has also kept himself away from the parties that are opposing it. This brings us to the obvious question: Is Nitish out of the 2019 raceIJ
The fact is that Nitish has supported demonetisation only to enhance his image of an honest leader. But this has meant that he has now deviated from his anti-Modi stance, which was thought to be his real weapon. Even at the time he was with the NDA, he was an opponent of Modi. And that was the biggest reason why he was being considered his strongest competitor after he won the last elections in Bihar.
But now he is no longer a symbol of politics against the BJP or Modi. Though the JDU is raising the issue of alleged land scam of the BJP, and Nitish is also blaming the PM for disturbing the federal structure of the country, there is a message among the people that the Bihar CM is drifting towards the BJP again. It doesn’t matter whether he goes with the BJP or not, but probably he will not be able to regain his old image in the next two and a half years.
A BIG POlITICAl GAME
The burning question is why is Nitish supporting the decision of demonetisation, what is the challenge before him and why has he put the alliance in dangerIJ Though he is claiming that there is no danger to the alliance, the reality is that the RJD and Congress are not happy with his stand. That is why president of Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee, Ashok Chaudhary, met lalu Prasad Yadav, who then spoke to Sonia Gandhi over phone.
Sources say that the internal equation of the Mahagathbandhan has changed. On one hand, the Congress has refused to accept Nitish as the face for the next lok Sabha Elections, on the other, RJD leaders are demanding that the CM post be on a rotation basis. This means the lalu clan wants the CM post after two and a half years.
Amidst all this, the issue of political legacy is also a big challenge. Recently, a senior JDU leader, during an unofficial conversation, raised the question of why Nitish would hand over his legacy to lalu’s sonsIJ
However, if Modi is the biggest challenge before Nitish’s ambition to become the PM, Rahul Gandhi can also be an impediment in his path. That is why Nitish has played a big political game: He feels that the support of the biggest economic reform, demonetisation, and execution of the biggest social reform, ban on liquor, can make him the greatest leader of the masses.
FACE OF THE OPPOSITION
The Opposition is seething over demonetisation; Mayawati has opposed it, so have Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam. lalu’s party, the RJD, is against it, and the BJP’s alliance partner, Shiv Sena, is also not backing it. The left has not hidden its reservations either. But three leaders have emerged as the representatives of the Opposition against demonetisation — Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.
This is not mere coincidence that these three leaders are said to be the biggest contestants against Modi. Nitish was the fourth face, but now he is out of the race. So, it is being said that Rahul, Mamata, and Kejriwal are gearing up for 2019 via demonetisation.
A senior Congress leader says that like 2014 elections, 2019 will also be fought riding on Modi. If this happens, all anti-Modi votes will go to whoever emerges as the strongest anti-Modi face. So, a race has started among these three leaders to become the symbol of anti-Modi politics. Fate of one of them will be decided after the results of Assembly Elections in the next two years.
EQUATION IN MAHARASHTRA
Results of the local body elections in Maharashtra are being interpreted in many ways. Putting together rural and urban bodies, voting was done for 174 local bodies, and the BJP became the largest party in 55. The Shiv Sena, the BJP’s alliance partner, was at number two. The Congress and NCP were on the third and fourth places.
These results indicate that major changes are on the cards in Maharashtra politics. Sources say that the Congress and NCP are again thinking about getting together. This should be noted that in the local body elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena had gone into an alliance. But the Congress and NCP were not together, due to which Sharad Pawar turned out to be the biggest loser. Five years ago, the NCP was the number one party after winning maximum seats, but this time, it has slipped to number 4.
So, the Congress and NCP might go together in the BMC elections, which are scheduled for next year. After these results, chances have increased that the BJP will continue its alliance with the Shiv Sena. However, leaders of State BJP have conveyed the message to national leaders that both parties must continue together. Though leaders of the Shiv Sena have been targeting the Modi Government on several issues, neither of the parties is in favour of discontinuing their alliance in the State.
CONG BACK TO SQUARE ONE
In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has returned to the same position it was at in July, when it had started its campaign. The party had given an impression that its fate would completely turn around this time. But three months later, there has been no progress.
Sources in the Congress say that strategist Prashant Kishor has stopped taking interest in UP. Many State leaders had complained against him to the party high command and he had also not been getting his payments, which is why he detached himself from the UP mission of the Congress. Along with him, his volunteers have also parted ways with the party. However, party leaders feel that in the past six months, whatever buzz was created was only due to Kishor’s management skills and media briefing.
Now that he has become indifferent, people have stopped talking about the Congress. Rahul’s Kisan Yatra has lost its meaning too. Congress leaders are saying that the CM candidate of the party, Sheila Dikshit, has also become completely inactive. In-charge general secretary of UP, Ghulam Nabi Azad, is busy in Parliament these days. Only State party president Raj Babbar is a little active, but that won’t make any difference.
All EYES ON AMRITSAR
Amritsar lok Sabha seat is vacant now. Capt Amarinder Singh has tendered his resignation, which the Speaker has accepted. So, this is certain that next year, byelections will be held for MP seat along with the Assembly Elections.
Amritsar was a high-profile seat in 2014 lok Sabha Elections as Arun Jaitley had fought from here. The ruling Akali Dal had put in all its strength behind Jaitley, but he could not win.
So this time again, Amritsar will be a crucial seat. It’s highly unlikely that Jaitley will contest again from here. However, whether or not he contests, the fight will be important. All eyes will be on Amritsar as it is a prestige issue for Capt Amarinder, who is the unofficial CM candidate of the Congress in Punjab.
If Navjot Singh Sidhu fights from this seat, he will have to prove that he had been winning on his own and not due to the BJP. The AAP’s stand will be interesting. This time, the party is hell-bent on winning Punjab elections. So, it can field a strong candidate. State president of the party, Gurpreet Ghuggi, is said to be the candidate from Amritsar.