Before the Budget Session starts, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will talk to the Opposition for getting the necessary Bills passed. Reliable sources say that despite the assurance from the managers of the BJP and Government, the PM is unsure of whether the GST and Real Estate Bills can be passed without the support of the Congress.
The Parliamentary managers of the Government believe that they can get the Bills passed with the help of the regional parties. Especially on GST, all the kshatrapas are ready. However, their support can’t be taken for granted. BJP leaders feel that due to the West Bengal election, the relation with TMC is estranged and there is the least possibility that Mamata Banerjee’s party will support the Government in the Budget Session.
In the same way, the support of the kshatrapas is not unconditional either. So there are two options in front of the Government: Either it talks to the Congress for support of the GST and Real Estate Bill or it defers the deadline to implement the GST Bill for one year. With the second option, the Government will have some more time but Modi might go ahead with the first. After talking to the Congress and other parties, there will be an attempt to get the Bill passed in the second half of the Budget Session. Though, some of the leaders are of the view that the Bill should be presented after new members of Rajya Sabha join in the Monsoon Session.
NO UNANIMITY ON AllIANCE
There is no consensus on an alliance in the Congress. After the Bihar results, where the party performed well with the Mahagathbandhan, it was speculated that the Congress realised the necessity of an alliance. But, now it is being said that Sonia Gandhi (and her old team), though in favour of going with an alliance in different States, is hesitant. Congress’s old team is strategising keeping the 2019 election in mind. They think that the regional parties should be strengthened in the States to weaken the BJP.
So, Congress plans to ally with the kshatrapas, from Mamata, Karunanidhi, Mehbooba Mufti or Omar Abdullah, to Mayawati and Ajit Singh. Also, many of its leaders feel that the party must not put its energy in State elections and must relinquish its interests so that it can return to power at the Centre.
But Rahul Gandhi doesn’t fully agree with this strategy. He doesn’t want to make any new alliance partner; which is why the alliance with Mayawati is not being finalised. Rahul believes Dalit politics should be played by Congress on its own and doesn’t want to allot any space to another party for it.
CHHATTISGHARH CRISIS AND RAHUl
The Chhattisgarh crisis has become an unpalatable issue for the Congress. The party had been ousted from power in 2003 and in the last two elections, it reached very close to victory but was defeated. That is the reason why the party high command is taking time to ponder over any decision on Ajit Jogi despite taking into account that he is facing allegations of betraying the party.
There have always been three factions in Congress and it is difficult to maintain balance among them. Vidya Charan Shukla is no more but all the three factions are. Ajit Jogi and Motilal Vora are two permanent factions while Bhupesh Baghel has emerged as the third. Jogi and Baghel are at loggerheads but Vora is also not very happy with Baghel. This is also one of the reasons why any action on Jogi is being deferred. One of Vora’s leaders says that if Jogi is thrown out from the party, Baghel’s leadership will be established.
Jogi, however, has a good hold over the tribes of the State. He is popular among the Christian tribes too. And if the controversial tape is to be believed, he also shares good rapport with CM Raman Singh. In this scenario, if he leaves Congress, he can form a regional party and Singh might help him. That is why Sonia and Rahul are not in any hurry to decide on Jogi despite pressure from Baghel’s faction. It’s also possible that after some time, the decision of suspension of Amit Jogi may be revoked.
AllIANCE IN PUNJAB
There will be no alliance between Congress and the left. leaders of both parties have deliberately deferred the decision of an alliance for their own benefit. The left parties are apprehensive that their minority vote bank might get divided. So, they are advertising two things. On one hand, they said that the TMC and BJP are supporting each other and on the other hand, they manufactured the news that they are going into alliance with the Congress so that a message will spread that the left is trying to unite all the secular forces. Actually, this is an attempt to lure minority votes.
Interestingly, Congress has manufactured the news of an alliance with the left so that there will be a pressure on Mamata. In fact, its leaders want an alliance with TMC. But, Mamata is not ready for it. The State president of Congress, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, is not on good terms with her as well. It means Congress and left both are talking about an alliance as per their suitability.
In Punjab, Captain Amarinder Singh has talked with CPM General Secretary Sitaram Yechury. He wants to show his strength against the BJP-Akali alliance and wants to keep CPM and CPI with him. The left is least effective in Punjab and it is out of the main fight, so there will be no tension of seat sharing.
KEJRIWAl IN PUNJAB’S POlITICS
To some extent, Punjab is a new State for Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal. He isn’t much aware of its politics but knows well what all should be done to stay in news there. So, he is playing Punjab’s politics from Delhi. His close aides say that whatever he is doing in Delhi, messages are being sent to Punjab too.
When he targets Arun Jaitley, his motive is to create whirls in Punjab’s politics. In the lok Sabha election, Jaitley was defeated from Amritsar. It is said that Sukhbir Badal and his brother-in-law Bikram Singh Majithia were the brain behind the fielding of Jaitley from Amritsar. Kejriwal, at his rallies in Punjab, linked Majithia with drug smugglers. When he went to record his statement in Delhi’s court in the defamation case filed by Jaitley, he said that since Jaitley had been defeated by 1 lakh votes, he didn’t have any repute. Clearly, the entire issue has been created keeping the Punjab election in mind.
likewise, Kejriwal put out a pan India message when he implemented the odd-even formula. He knows that this formula will be discussed a lot. In the next few days, he will implement the next phase of this formula. In the same manner, his decision to abolish management quota in nursery admission will have an all India effect. There is speculation that he will next concentrate on the lokpal Bill. He will face direct confrontation with the Centre on this and before the Punjab election, present himself as a crusader against corruption, pollution, nepotism and drug menace. It’ll be interesting to see as corruption is usually rampant in Punjab.
IAS VS OTHERS
Many steps of the Central Government have made IAS cadres unhappy and probably it will increase in the future also. In fact, there is much tension in bureaucracy over several issues. One is of the officers of State vs officers of All India Services. The State Governments are assigning plume postings to its own officers. The IAS and IPS officers, after being promoted from State services, are being assigned big responsibilities. Punjab is a suitable example here where promoted police officers are posted as SPs in more than 90 per cent of the districts. The same is happening in other States too.
However, IAS officers are unhappy as an attempt is being made to make the pay scale of officers from other cadre on par with them. The Central Government is going to appoint Secretary and Additional Secretary from other All India Services also. The Cabinet Secretary has sought a list of such officers from all the departments who can be appointed as Secretary and Additional Secretary. Before this, generally IAS officers used to be appointed on these posts.
Now, the Government will appoint IPS, IFS and IRS officers as well on these two posts. Many Joint Secretary level officers have been taken from other cadres also. Though it is said that this has affected the work of the Government, the Government is least bothered about that. That is the reason why many IAS officers have returned to their own cadres. Now, if non IAS officers will become Secretaries, the backbone of bureaucracy will change.