A question doing the rounds these days is that if Nitish Kumar and his party try to build a separate front, what would be the stand of the CongressIJ In fact, the Congress had suggested that a strong front must be formed, and that there must be an alliance like the UPA under its leadership. However, JDU had outrightly rejected the suggestion. The State president of JDU, Vashishtha Narayan Singh, said this “non-serious proposal” had resulted out of the enthusiasm of the victory in Bihar.
Now, JDU is projecting Nitish’s name as part of a well thought out strategy. The party has said that he has a clean image and a pan-India recognition, so he can be pitted against Narendra Modi. The first step in this direction was taken at Nitish’s oath-taking ceremony on November 20. Most of the leaders invited have been partners of the third front at some point or the other.
Almost a dozen leaders, such as HD Deve Gowda, Naveen Patnaik, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and Farooq Abdullah had been invited. Apart from them, Mamata Banerjee, who was once with the Congress, and Arvind Kejriwal, who had defeated the Congress and BJP in Delhi, were sent invitations. Nitish’s guest list had the Congress leaders worried, but they think many kshatrapas need the party and will come to it eventually.
BIHAR-lIKE AllIANCEs
Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi wants to form Bihar-like alliances in other States also. Recently, while talking unofficially with regional journalists, he hinted at the States where he is planning such tie-ups. Though this strategy of the Congress will depend on the regional parties of the States.
The Congress is planning for an alliance in Assam. CM Tarun Gogoi has also started making plans and has held talks with AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal. The Congress is also planning to talk to AGP leader Prafulla Kumar Mahanta.
The Congress wants to take along its old partner, Hagrama Mohilary, the leader of Bodoland People’s Front, but chances are Mohilary will go alone. If Gogoi is successful in taking in Ajmal and Mahanta, then this mahagathbandhan will pose a big challenge for the BJP.
In West Bengal, the Congress is ready to talk to Mamata and the left. Some Congress leaders are also in touch with CPM General Secretary Sitaram Yechury, while Sonia Gandhi sent Diwali greetings to Mamata. The Congress already has an alliance in place in Kerala, while in Tamil Nadu, it will go with DMK. In Maharashtra, the Congress is trying to woo NCP, and in Uttar Pradesh, it can join hands with BSP.
PREPARATIONS FOR UP
Bihar results have infused Congress leaders with new energy. After the thumping victory, Congress leaders are gearing up for UP elections, which are scheduled for 2017. A leader of Bihar Congress said that despite the hard work of Rahul in 2012, the party had won only 28 of the 403 seats, and has now won 27 seats in Bihar without doing any work. That is the reason why talks have started for a grand alliance in UP as well.
The last time around, the Congress had forged an alliance with RlD, but its performance was poor. So there is least chance that this time the Congress will go with the party. This time Ajit Singh might go with the BJP. If this happens, then the BJP, RlD and Apna Dal might form an alliance. On the other hand, there is a possibility that SP will go alone.
It is being said that the Congress is also seeing a possibility of an alliance with BSP. Though that will be a tall order, in the triangular fight, the Congress and BSP will benefit if they join hands. Congress leaders are trying to persuade BSP that if they go into an alliance, Muslim votes will not be divided.
However, Rahul said the high command will not force any decision regarding the alliance. He said he talks to State leaders on the alliance issue almost daily and then takes any decision, and will do the same for Uttar Pradesh too.
In fact, the Congress is going to seek advice from the lowest level. On November 20, the party had organised a meeting of district presidents and on the very next day, there was another meeting in which the party assessed its strength. Reports of these meetings will be sent to Rahul. Though it is still not clear if district presidents will be asked for their opinion on an alliance with BSP.
GEARING UP FOR SESSION
The Government and Opposition have started preparations for the Winter Session of Parliament. CPM has given a notice for debate on the issue of so-called ‘intolerance’. The Congress is also preparing a notice. The Opposition will press for a debate and a reply from PM Modi.
Apart from this, the Opposition will attack the Government on the issues of GST and FDI. The Central Government has decided either to increase the limit of FDI or to ease the laws related to FDI for 15 subjects. The Congress and left are opposing this move. Meanwhile, Rahul has also indicated that lalitgate and Vyapam issues will be raised again in Parliament.
On the other hand, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Venkaiah Naidu is trying for better co-ordination with the Opposition. Even before the notice of CPM, he made it clear that the Government is ready for a debate in Parliament. Though it is not clear whether the PM will interfere in this or not. It is being speculated that the Government will also call an all-party meet to appeal for the smooth proceeding of Parliament. But the managers of the Government are apprehensive that the Opposition will not co-operate this time as well.
EQUATION OF CONG AND lEFT
On one hand, Sonia Gandhi sent Diwali greetings to Mamata Banerjee, and on the other hand, Congress leaders invited CPM leaders to attend the function organised on Jawaharlal Nehru’s 125th birth anniversary. local leaders of CPM attended the function at Kolkata. Somnath Chatterjee, who was expelled from CPM, also attended the function and emphasised the need to move forward jointly.
There is speculation that the Congress is trying to forge an alliance with TMC, but the leaders are a bit apprehensive as they think Mamata will go alone. So, the Congress is also looking into the possibility of going with the left. Right from the land Bill to the issue of ‘intolerance’, the left has supported the Congress.
In West Bengal, CPM is facing grave problem and might fade away soon. So, the party is open for an alliance to face the challenges posed by the BJP and TMC. The party believes that an alliance of six left parties will not succeed in achieving this. So, the party leaders are not hesitant in talking with the Congress.
CHAllENGES IN BYPOllS
Though byelections are being held on only two lok Sabha and six Assembly seats, the results will have a big impact on the BJP. After the Bihar defeat, victory in bypolls is necessary to motivate BJP workers. Apart from this, the BJP is also concerned about local body polls in Gujarat on November 22 and 29. In this scenario, results of byelections become more important.
In Madhya Pradesh, fight on Ratlam lok Sabha seat and Dewas Assembly seat is a prestige issue for the BJP. The Congress has put up former Central Minister Kantilal Bhuria from Ratlam. On one hand is Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and on the other, Digvijaya Singh is putting all his strength.
Telangana’s Warangal lok Sabha seat is also equally important for the BJP. The party is fighting on this seat after going into an alliance with TDP. It is hoping to push the Congress on third spot, in case it wins the seat after defeating TRS. Equally important is lohardaga Assembly seat in Jharkhand where the BJP’s alliance partner AJSU has put up its candidate. Congress State President Sukhdeo Bhagat will fight from this seat.
BJP’S HOPE IN KERAlA
Assembly Elections in five States are scheduled for next year and the BJP has big hopes for two of them. It is hopeful that it will perform well in Assam and Kerala. BJP leaders are seeing a chance to form the Government in Assam. For this, the party is recruiting a bunch of leaders from here and there, which has resulted in infighting in Assam BJP.
The BJP is also hopeful that it will open its account in Kerala. Recently, the party performed well in the local body elections and its leaders are upbeat. The BJP vote bank is rising in Kerala. In the local body elections of 2005, the BJP had got only 4.5 per cent vote, which has increased to 14 per cent in 2015. In the local body elections of 2010, it had got 483 seats, which has increased to 933 in 2015.
In fact Kerala is the only State where BJP’s vote share has increased after the lS Elections. In all other States where Assembly Elections have been held after the lS polls, BJP’s vote share has declined. In Kerala, the BJP had got 10.83 per cent votes in lS Elections, but in the recently held Assembly Elections, it got 14 per cent votes. This has made BJP leaders enthusiastic; they have identified some seats along with State Capital Thiruvananthapuram where they are seeing a possibility of victory.