The Supreme Court has put many former Chief Ministers in a fix. Many of them, from UP to Bihar to Jharkhand, have to vacate their Government bungalows. Former CMs, who are still MlAs, can stay in their Government accommodations, but those who are not MlAs will soon have to pack their bags and leave.
Three former Chief Ministers of Jharkhand — Arjun Munda, Babulal Marandi and Madhu Koda — fall in this category. Marandi has recently moved into a Government accommodation. All three had lost the last elections. Shibu Soren will not face any problem because he will get lifelong Government accommodation in the capacity of a leader who had fought for a separate State. Hemant Soren is an MlA and a leader of the Opposition, so his accommodation is also safe.
Former CM of UP and Uttarakhand, ND Tiwari, is on top of the list as he does not hold any post. Rajnath Singh, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and Mayawati are MPs, so they have to vacate their Government houses in lucknow. Ram Naresh Yadav and Kalyan Singh have now become Governors, so they too have to leave their bungalows in lucknow.
Two former CMs of Bihar, Dr Jagannath Mishra and Satish Prasad Singh, live in private accommodations. Jitan Ram Manjhi is an MlA and Rabri Devi is also a member of the legislative Assembly, so they can retain their accommodation. Nitish Kumar has two bungalows, and the BJP has been demanding he vacate one. Now it will be interesting to see what will be Nitish’s next move.
WAITING FOR GUJARAT POllS
Assembly Elections, which are scheduled for next year, are quite important for the BJP and equally important for the Opposition parties. Presumably, after UP elections, anti-BJP parties will start manoeuvring together. But a leader, who is playing an important role in creating an anti-BJP front, says that Opposition parties will act only after Gujarat elections.
At the beginning of next year, apart from UP, some other States will also witness elections, and after that a new contender will come up. If AAP wins Punjab elections, then Arvind Kejriwal will emerge as a strong contender. If the BSP wins UP elections, then Mayawati will try to mould the situation in her favour, seeing the mood of the ongoing Dalit movement.
From this point of view, Gujarat elections are crucial. If the BJP loses, then the Opposition parties will gain momentum. Polarisation for 2019 will take place around the party which wins, be it AAP or the Congress. But if the BJP regains its citadel in Gujarat, then the strength of Opposition parties will die down gradually. A leader, who is trying for a Federal Front on behalf of Mamata Banerjee, says the Opposition can project either Nitish or Kejriwal.
BJP COMMUNICATION SYSTEM
The BJP is creating a system to listen to the grievances and advice of its MPs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has roped in Central Ministers and senior leaders of the party for this task, and has instructed them to meet party MPs. Many ministers have started meeting the MPs in groups. The PM has formed a team of five senior ministers, including Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Manohar Parrikar.
Earlier, a senior minister used to sit at the party HQ every week, but the system did not work properly. That is why a new system has been put in place. One member from Amit Shah’s team can also be assigned the responsibility of sitting at the party HQ to meet leaders and workers.
This step has been taken keeping in mind next year’s elections. The leaders feel that it is necessary to establish direct dialogue with party MPs because it is they who will ensure victory of party candidates in their respective areas. As of now, complaints of MPs from UP are being given utmost priority.
SWARAJ ABHIYAN VS AAP
Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav and Anand Kumar have announced that they will launch a new party. After leaving AAP, they have been running a movement called Swaraj Abhiyan, but now they are going to launch a political party and this has come as a big jolt to AAP leaders, who are busy with Punjab poll preparations.
Swaraj Abhiyan will become a political party by October 2, and will also join the Punjab poll bandwagon. Bhushan and Yadav have worked hard in Punjab. This is also a fact that the MPs who have been thrown out of AAP are in close contact with Swaraj Abhiyan. Even Dharamvir Gandhi was present at the function where the announcement for a party was made. People say that MP Harinder Singh Khalsa is also in touch with Bhushan and Yadav. When the new party is formed, these two faces may be put forward.
leaders of Swaraj Abhiyan are not saying much, but they are confident that they will certainly cause a big headache for AAP. A campaign will be launched to finish the perception that AAP is an honest party.
In the suicide case of Soni Mishra, Bhushan had exposed Sharad Chauhan and said that he was against giving a ticket to him, given his dubious track record. Facts like these will be the main weapon in the hands of Bhushan, Yadav, Kumar and Ajit Jha against Kejriwal and his team.
A UNITED OPPOSITIONIJ
There seem to be a growing consensus, officially or unofficially, amongst the Opposition parties. In the upcoming elections, Mamata Banerjee, lalu Prasad Yadav and Arvind Kejriwal might help each other.
To help Mulayam in UP, lalu has decided not to field any candidate. At the same time, Nitish is trying to stop the non-Yadav vote bank, especially Koeri and Kurmi, from moving to the BJP fold. For this, Nitish will put his candidates in areas where non-Yadav voters are dominant. Both have the same motive — to stop the BJP. It is also possible that Nitish will tie up with the Congress so that a strong front can be formed.
Also, Mamata has decided to help Kejriwal in Punjab elections, and will campaign for AAP in the State. Here, Nitish will stay behind because he has an alliance with the Congress, and in Punjab, the party will fight AAP directly. But probably he will try to consolidate NRI votes because if that is divided, the BJP and Akali combine may benefit. By the next year, Nitish will be active in Delhi for the MCD elections and will take the initiative for a joint front to defeat the BJP.
lEGAl MESS FOR CONGRESS
There were no legal challenges before either the Congress or the Government during UPA 1 regime because Hansraj Bhardwaj was their law Minister. He handled everything with great skill. When UPA 2 came to power, Bhardwaj was not given a ministerial berth; rather he was shifted to Bangalore’s Raj Bhawan. And the entire country knows what happened in those five years. The Congress had given the Ministry of law to five of its stalwarts, but its problems did not decrease. On the contrary, the top leadership is still facing several charges of corruption et al.
Now, the problems of the Congress and its top leadership will only increase, and the reason will be Bhardwaj. There is speculation that he may join the BJP. If he doesn’t directly join the BJP, party leaders might seek legal advice from him. He shared the dais with BJP leaders at a function, Right to law, on August 3. law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad and HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar were also a part of the function.
Some say Bhardwaj has been in touch with Subramanian Swamy for some time now. They are said to have been meeting regularly to talk on legal and political issues. Bhardwaj can be of great help in a mission against Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. If Bhardwaj helps Swamy, the problems of the Congress will certainly go up.
QUEST FOR SPECIAl STATUS
Chandrababu Naidu had literally gone for a coup to usurp power in Andhra Pradesh some years ago, and it has been a unique example in modern Indian politics. That is why parties of the Third Front have great hope from him. When Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the PM, Naidu was the convenor of the NDA. His party was not a part of the Government, but he had managed to get the lok Sabha Speaker post for his party leader.
After that he has been with the BJP. But recently, tension has crept in his relationship with the party on the issue of special status to Andhra Pradesh. Though, this is also true that till some days ago, he was co-operating with the BJP and had even sacrificed a Rajya Sabha seat for his coalition partner.
To have a talk on the issue of special status to Andhra Pradesh, Naidu has supposedly decided to send a team of MPs to meet the PM. But before that, TDP MPs have started criticising the PM and Jaitley. Recently, Jaitley had said that the Centre is ready give financial assistance to Andhra Pradesh, but not special status.
MP from Anantapur, JC Diwakar Reddy, has directly attacked Modi, alleging that he is trying to suppress TDP and its leader Naidu. He also said that in the next elections, the BJP may become the largest party but Modi will not be able to form the Government on its own.
Reddy has even given a signal for the new equation, saying there will be only two kingmakers in the country — Naidu and Nitish. Interestingly, both are demanding special status for their States. The only difference is that Nitish is dead against Modi and Naidu is still with him. But there can be big upheaval by the next elections, and it is certain that Naidu and Nitish will play a crucial role in it.