As the biennial elections of the Rajya Sabha near, the MPs who are going to retire are getting restless. The MPs of the SP, BSP, Congress, and JDU, whose tenure is about to end, are more worried because they feel that they are not going to make a comeback. So, it is being said that two MPs from the Samajwadi Party are keeping an eye on West Bengal. They might have even sent feelers to Mamata Banerjee, but have not got a green signal yet. One more MP from the SP, who is known for his controversial statements, recently contacted the BJP, but to no avail.
Elections will be held for 10 Rajya Sabha seats from UP. Mayawati’s seat is already vacant and nine MPs are going to retire in April. Of these nine, six are from the Samajwadi Party. The Rajya Sabha MPs of the SP are well aware that only one of them can make a comeback. In the present scenario of UP Assembly, the SP will get only one seat and the whole Opposition, ie the SP, BSP, and Congress combined, will get one seat only. Rest of the eight seats will go to the BJP.
That is why some of the MPs of the Samajwadi Party are restless. People are saying that two MPs of the SP want to take advantage of their Bengali origins. Kiranmoy Nanda, who was a Minister in the left Government in West Bengal, and Jaya Bachchan — who have a strong Bengali network — are said to be in touch with the TMC leaders. Amitabh Bachchan often calls himself the “son-in-law of Bengal” and Mamata has a lot of respect for him. This has said to have raised the hopes of Jaya and she is expecting a seat from West Bengal. In the same manner, Nanda had been working as a bridge between Mamata and Mulayam Singh Yadav, so he is also hopeful.
From West Bengal, four Rajya Sabha seats are going to be vacated; three belong to the TMC and one to the CPM. This time also, the CPM and Congress will win one seat and three seats will go to the TMC. People are saying that Mamata doesn’t have any problem in sending an outsider to the Rajya Sabha, but on the condition that he or she will have to join her party.
SHEIlA, MAKEN JOIN HANDS
Former Chief Minister of Delhi Sheila Dikshit and president of Delhi Congress Ajay Maken have once again come together, albeit on the directions of Party President Rahul Gandhi. There was a time when Maken was very close to Sheila. When she became the CM for the first time, Maken was one of her closest ministers. later, Maken’s ambitions grew, creating a divide between them. In 2004, Maken fought the lok Sabha Elections and became a Minister at the Centre.
Now, both leaders are facing an identity crisis. Sheila is least worried about herself, but feels that her son’s political future is in jeopardy. That is why she has tried to reach out to the party leadership. People are saying that seeing the prospects of Sandeep Dikshit, she has decided to help Maken’s effort for revival of the Congress in Delhi.
The Congress leaders have become hopeful of a good performance of the party after results of byelections in Bawana, and some other seats in different States. They feel that if byelections for 20 seats are held in Delhi, then some of them can be grabbed by the Congress. So, Maken is putting all his efforts and Sheila is helping him. Sandeep’s statements, too, have changed.
RETURN TO RAJYA SABHA
Eight Ministers of the Modi Cabinet are going to retire from the Rajya Sabha, but are expected to make a comeback. Possibly, the States of some of the Ministers might be changed. They might be sent to the Rajya Sabha from different States, but it seems certain that they all will make a re-entry into the Upper House.
Three members of the Rajya Sabha from Gujarat are Ministers in the Modi Cabinet and they are going to retire from the Upper House this year. Apart from Arun Jaitley, State Minister for Agriculture Parshottam Rupala, and State Minister for Chemical, Mansukh Mandaviya, are going to retire this year. According to the new equation of the Gujarat Assembly, only two members from the BJP can be sent to the Rajya Sabha. So, possibly one of the Ministers will be sent to the Rajya Sabha from another State. Rupala and Mandaviya are from Gujarat, so perhaps Jaitley might be sent from another State. It is another thing if Modi wants to keep only two Ministers from Gujarat. In that case, two Ministers from Gujarat will be elected to the Rajya Sabha.
In the same manner, two Ministers are from Madhya Pradesh and their tenure in the Rajya Sabha will end soon. Supposedly, Thawar Chand Gehlot will be sent to the Rajya Sabha from MP, and Prakash Javadekar will be shifted to his home State, Maharashtra. On the other seat of MP, any leader of the State will be sent to the Rajya Sabha because the Assembly Elections are scheduled in the State by the end of this year.
Two Central Ministers’ RS tenure is also about to end; Dharmendra Pradhan and Ravi Shankar Prasad are going to retire from the Upper House this year. The BJP, on its own, can send back only one of them. So, possibly Pradhan could be shifted to any of the tribal-dominated States like Jharkhand or Chhattisgarh. He can also be sent to the Rajya Sabha from UP. Senior Minister JP Nadda will also retire from RS this year, and will make a re-entry from there only.
THE SEAT FORMUlA
This time, the BJP can win 10 to 12 new seats on its own in the Rajya Sabha. But the BJP will need its partners’ help to win new seats. In the last biennial elections in 2016, Chandrababu Naidu had helped the BJP by sending Suresh Prabhu to the Rajya Sabha from his own quota. Before that, he had given a seat to Nirmala Sitharaman. But this time, he won’t give any seat from his quota to the BJP. Three seats will be vacated from the State and two will go to the TDP and one to the YSR Congress quota.
The BJP will have to toil for the other seat in Bihar. Six seats will be vacated from Bihar and two of them belong to the BJP. Given the present equation in the Assembly, 35 votes will be required to win one Rajya Sabha seat. After that, the BJP will be left with 24 votes only. If Nitish Kumar helps the BJP, he can manage cross-voting of 11 Congress MlAs and manage the other seat for the party. But right now, this seems difficult.
The last time, the BJP had won both seats from Jharkhand but now that seems like a tall order. The reason is simple: The BJP is not in a good phase with the AJSU. The last time, two MlAs from Babulal Marandi’s party had cast their votes in favour of the BJP candidate. This time, that will not be possible. Despite that, the BJP will try to win both seats. The seats which are going to be vacated belong to the JMM and Congress. This means the BJP will have the benefit of two seats from Jharkhand. As many as 28 votes are needed to win one seat of the Rajya Sabha, which means 56 votes will be needed to win both seats, and the ruling alliance has 49 votes.