The motive of the Congress is not to form a Government but to stop the BJP from forming one. Reportedly, the party believes that Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik will not join the NDA. Mayawati, Jayalalithaa, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Jaganmohan Reddy and Chandrashekhar Rao are also being aimed.The Congress expects that it can score in polarising the parties
It is expected that after the elections, the coalition of the Congress party will expand. Experts at the Congress war room and strategists of Rahul Gandhi still feel that the results will differ from the pre-poll surveys. Reliable sources say that talks are on with the leaders of probable post-poll alliance partners. The Congress may take the help of Sharad Pawar and Prakash Karat for this task. Their motive is not to form a Government but to stop the BJP from forming one. Reportedly, the party is hopeful after Jayalalithaa’s unhappiness with the BJP and her attack on Narendra Modi’s Gujarat model. They believe that Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik will also not join the NDA and BJP respectively. Apart from this, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Jaganmohan Reddy and Chandrashekhar Rao are also being aimed. So, the Congress expects that it can score in polarising the parties.
CONGRESS lACKS MINORITY VOTE-BANK
Two parties of Uttar Pradesh, which provided external support to the UPA to run the Government for 10 years have, however, exacerbated the problems of the party in this election. Though the Congress is trying its best to unite the secular votes, those expectations are nearly punctured. Votes of the party are being divided due to the SP and BSP candidates, especially in Maharashtra and Gujarat.
In Maharashtra, the BJP has anyhow managed to persuade Raj Thackeray so that its vote bank remains intact while the Congress has failed to do the same with the SP which has filled 21 candidates in Muslim majority seats. The Muslim face of the Samajwadi Party in Maharashtra, Abu Azmi, has even put his son Farhan into the fight. So, the SP is eroding the Muslim and non-Marathi vote banks of the Congress. It has fielded 11 candidates in Gujarat also. The BSP too has fielded candidates though this time Mayawati is not seen putting in much effort. That is the reason why its core vote bank is taking to pieces, benefitting the BJP.
PROBlEMS OF THE BIHAR GOVERNMENT
Problems of the Nitish Kumar Government are continuously increasing with the declining majority of the Government. JD(U) MlA Renu Kushwaha’s husband Vijay Kushwaha is the BJP candidate from Madhepura and Renu is campaigning for him. likewise, Poonam Yadav is campaigning for her sister Krishna Yadav who is contesting on an RJD ticket. Sujata Devi was unhappy as Nitish Kumar had not given a ticket to her husband Vishwa Mohan Kumar from Supaul. The three of them have been expelled and the Government is in a clear cut minority. Akhtarul Iman, an MlA who had joined the JD(U) leaving the RJD, has left the party in the midst of the lok Sabha elections.
At present, Assembly by-elections are being held on five seats in Bihar. The Government can survive only if it gets seats in the by-elections. That is, even if the JDU is defeated in the lok Sabha elections but wins in the Assembly by-elections, the Nitish Government can continue.
CM VERSUS PM
A large chunk of voters in Delhi had said that they would cast their vote for Arvind Kejriwal in the Assembly elections and for Narendra Modi in the lok Sabha elections. In the lok Sabha elections in Delhi, the same trend is being seen and that is the reason why all survey experts feel that the vote percentage of the Aam Aadmi Party will decline and that of the BJP will increase.
The same trend is being observed in Bihar, where even the BJP and RJD-Congress supporters say that in the Assembly elections they will support Nitish Kumar. At many places, people are saying that Modi is good for the country and Nitish for the State. likewise, in Haryana, the slogan being heard is that it is Narendra Modi at the higher level (Prime Minister) and Bhupinder Singh Hooda at the lower level (Chief Minister). In Uttar Pradesh too, some hardcore supporters of the BSP are not casting their votes for Mayawati but they do say that Mayawati is the best for the State.
WHAT NEXT FOR KEJRIWAl IJ
Kejriwal and his party are saying that if Modi wins, he will leave Varanasi although he has not revealed what he will do if he himself wins from Varanasi. Will he live in Delhi or shift to VaranasiIJ
The AAP leaders’ guesswork on Modi is not disclosing anything on this issue. Kejriwal is an MlA from the New Delhi seat. He has not tendered his resignation. It is said that this issue has been discussed many a time on the party forum but most of the leaders opined that if Kejriwal were to resign and announce that he would not fight from Delhi then the AAP would be finished in the Assembly elections. Obviously, Kejriwal has to fight from Delhi to save the AAP. If he projects any other leader as the Chief Minister of Delhi, then the party will face a big loss.
PROBlEMS FOR JAYAlAlITHAA
Although it is expected that Jayalalithaa will have a clean sweep in Tamil Nadu, she is still quite worried, and not about archrival DMK but the NDA. Before the five parties came for an alliance it was expected that 30 out of the total 39 seats in Tamil Nadu seats would go to her party. But recent surveys indicate that the AIADMK will get only 24 seats. Although this will be a victory for Jayalalithaa as the party has currently only nine MPs, she feels that the strength of NDA is on the rise and the DMK can be benefited by a triangular fight.
Karunanidhi’s son Alagiri has also given his support to the BJP alliance. Modi has also met Rajinikanth so his support too is expected by the BJP. Social engineering of the NDA has been furthered strengthened due to Capt Vijayakanth, Vaiko and Anbumani Ramadoss. On the other hand, harmony has been struck between the DMK and the Congress, which might help the DMK though certainly not the Congress.