The BJP managed to take away two seats from the Congress in Manipur byelections, which is an indication of its growing strength in the State. Now, the BJP has registered victory in four wards in Tripura local elections. The party bagged 14 per cent votes, leaving Congress behind despite the party winning 14 seats
The northeast has given a lot of hope to the BJP in recent times. The party managed to take away two seats from the Congress in Manipur byelections, which is an indication of the BJP’s growing strength in the State. Now, the BJP has registered victory in four wards in Tripura local elections. The party has bagged 14 per cent votes, and left the Congress way behind despite the party winning 14 seats. This is a huge shot in the arm for the BJP with respect to the elections in Assam and West Bengal scheduled for next year.
The local election of Tripura was important in many senses. The CPM Government has maintained its position for the fifth time, and the image of Chief Minister Manik Sarkar is also very good. The CPM had pitched a proposal to go with the Congress to stop the BJP. It was said that the Congress and CPM forged a hidden alliance and fought elections together with indirect co-ordination. Despite that, the BJP got 14 per cent votes, which was a big achievement.
That is why the BJP is hopeful that it will perform well in Assam. The party has blown the Assembly Election bugle by giving the State President post to Sarbananda Sonowal. BJP leaders are of the view that if the party wins in Assam, the doors to northeast will open.
It must be noted that the BJP has never been a reckoning force in the North-East, which is considered a Congress bastion. But the Congress is gradually losing its ground there. This time, Assam elections will be decisive, and hence the BJP is mulling over the possibility of tying up with the BPF.
CONG ACCEPTS BlUNDERS
The Congress is accepting its historical blunders one by one. In India, this tradition is almost over, especially in politics. Of course, the largest communist party of India had once said in public that denying the PM post to Jyoti Basu in 1996 was a historical blunder. At that time, Jyoti Basu was the natural choice to lead the coalition Government, but the party’s Politburo and central committee thought otherwise.
However, now the Congress is accepting its mistakes. First, P Chidambaram said Rajiv Gandhi Government’s decision to ban Salman Rushdie’s book, Satanic Verses, was wrong. Though Congress leaders rejected his statement by saying that was his personal view, the fact that Chidambaram continues to be close to the Congress Vice-President proves that the party high command agrees with him.
After that, the party’s chief whip in lok Sabha, Jyotiraditya Scindia, said imposing Emergency on the country was a huge mistake. This is a sensitive issue for the Congress, but this time no voices were raised against Scindia.
Now, there are speculations that the Congress might put some other incidents, such as the Sikh riots and Shah Bano case, in the historical blunder category.
SP READY FOR AllIANCE
The Samajwadi Party is ready for an alliance for the Assembly Elections scheduled for 2017. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is believed to have given theoretical consent to this. Recently at a function in Delhi, Akhilesh said his party was ready for an alliance, but added that only Mulayam Singh Yadav had the right to speak on this. The question is which party will go for an alliance with the Samajwadi PartyIJ
In UP, the four big parties have a clear stand. SP and BSP are arch rivals. Though many leaders of SP recently said that just like in Bihar, both regional parties should come together to stop the BJP in UP. After the Bihar results, this scenario was much debated, but now that has stopped.
BSP supremo Mayawati has outrightly rejected this possibility. Apart from these two, there are two national parties — the Congress and BJP — and there is least possibility of an alliance between SP and these two parties. It is possible that the Congress and BSP could go together; it is also possible that the BJP and BSP might join hands, but there is no possibility of either the Congress or BJP going with SP. There is a small regional party, the RlD, which may go with SP, but its leader Ajit Singh is demanding a Rajya Sabha seat, and SP will probably not bow down to the demand. So, now Ajit Singh is probably in talks with the BJP.
Apart from these two parties, all others are irrelevant. AIMIM, party of Asaduddin Owaisi, is also planning to fight in UP, but he too will not go either with SP or BSP. SP will also not join hands with leaders like Badruddin Ajmal, Dr Mohammed Ayub, and Mukhtar Ansari. A Bihar-style grand alliance is possible with the parties of the Janata Parivar, like RJD and JDU, but these parties have no base in UP.
ON SHARAD PAWAR’S TERMS
NCP chief Sharad Pawar is indulging in interesting politics. In his recently released autobiography, On My Terms: From the Grassroots to the Corridors of Power, he has targeted the BJP and Congress. In this book, on one hand, he has taken credit for toppling the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government in 1999, on the other hand, he has made a scathing attack on Sonia Gandhi, saying she was not ready to give the PM post to anyone with an independent ideology.
The book claims that when Vajpayee was seeking the confidence motion in 1999, Pawar had persuaded Mayawati to vote against him. In this manner, Pawar has given a message to non-BJP parties that he is anti-BJP. On the other hand, he has also sent a clear indication to non-Congress parties by attacking Sonia.
There is another instance of Pawar’s interesting politics. He didn’t publish those parts of the autobiography which were anti-Congress and anti-BJP because he had to bring Modi and Sonia on the same platform to celebrate his birthday. Obviously, he wanted to prove that he was accepted among the top leaders of the BJP and Congress, and at the same time he wanted to send a message to regional parties that he was anti-Congress and anti-BJP.
Till date it is not clear what advantage he is looking for with such positioning. He might claim candidature in the Presidential elections or might be positioning himself for 2019 elections.
THE REAl AGENDA
There are many speculations over Sharad Pawar’s agenda. He celebrated his 75th birthday in Delhi on December 10, and in Maharashtra on December 12. In Delhi, almost all national leaders stood on the same stage, and at the Mumbai function, leaders of most State parties were present. On this occasion, Pawar strengthened his image of being the Maratha kshatrapa.
It is said that Pawar personally ensured that Sonia would be present at the Delhi function as she is said to have been hesitant to share the stage with PM Narendra Modi. Praful Patel is said to have spoken to Ahmed Patel, who in turn persuaded Sonia. It was only at the last moment that Sonia gave her consent.
Why did Pawar bring Sonia and Modi on one platform and what was his motive behind bringing all regional kshatrapas under one roofIJ
Sources say that towards the end of his political career, Pawar is eying either of the two top posts in the country. He is lobbying for the Presidential elections of 2017 or the PM post in 2019. Sources in his party claim that Pawar is in the good books of Modi, Amit Shah and Arun Jaitley, so his name can be proposed for the post of the President in 2017. After that he will manage the support of almost all regional parties on his own. If this doesn’t work out, he wants to be an all-accepted face for 2019.
HURDlES IN RAHUl’S PATH
These days, the youth brigade of Rahul Gandhi is puzzled because whenever the situation of the party becomes better and people start talking about giving the command of the party to Rahul, sudden crisis erupts, dampening his prospects. The youth brigade is of the view that every time the problems are created by senior leaders of the party.
A recent incident is an excellent example of this. After the Bihar elections, the mood was upbeat in the party. Rahul was instrumental in finalising the grand alliance and it was he who coaxed lalu Prasad Yadav to accept Nitish Kumar as the leader of the alliance.
Before that Rahul was instrumental in pushing the Central Government on the backfoot over the land Bill. So, there was a chance that Rahul could finally hold the party reins. But soon, the National Herald controversy crept in. Those who are close of Rahul feel that some of the old leaders of the party leaked the documents and created problems for Sonia and Rahul.
Before this when Rahul had returned from a holiday and a huge farmer rally was organised in Delhi, it was almost certain that Rahul would be given the party command. But at that time too, veteran leaders forced the party to defer the decision in view of the Bihar elections. Now, Rahul’s promotion is being hampered by making the excuse of Assembly Elections in five States, and after that UP elections are bound to come in the way of Rahul’s coronation.