After Narendra Modi's elevation, the party is expected to expand its base in south India. In Karnataka, the BJP is trying to regain some of its lost ground with the possible return of former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa. likewise, in Tamil Nadu, Modi has good rapport with Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, who may eventually join the NDA
There is a near-stampede in the JD(U). Three to four party MlAs, along with several MPs, have either met the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi or his close aides. BJP sources believe that after Modi’s ‘Hunkar Rally’ in Patna on October 27, many JD(U) bigwigs will leave the party.
Recently, Chedi Paswan, a former MP from Sasaram and sitting JD(U) MlA from Mohania, met Modi. He, however, is not likely to leave the party soon as he doesn’t want to lose his Assembly seat. But speculations are rife that he may fight the lok Sabha elections on a BJP ticket. BJP sources claim that the party may give lok Sabha tickets to more than half-a-dozen JD(U) MlAs. With this move, the JD(U) majority will end in the Bihar Assembly.
More than half-a-dozen JD(U) MPs also want to fight on a BJP ticket. Gopalganj MP Puranmasi Ram, Muzzafarpur MP Jai Narayan Nishad, Aurangabad MP Sushil Singh, Karakat MP Mahabali Singh and Jhanjharpur MP Mangni lal Mandal are seeing their future in the BJP. There’s, however, a twist in the tale: With RJD chief lalu Prasad Yadav’s conviction in the fodder scam, there is strong possibility of a JD(U)-Congress alliance in Bihar. In this scenario, not many JD(U) MPs will want to leave the party.
Rajnath getting taller
First it was BJP president Rajnath Singh who ignored all criticism and announced Narendra Modi’s name as the prime ministerial candidate. For this he even came face to face with party patriarch lK Advani, who was not happy with the decision. Now, Modi is believed to have returned the favour with Rajnath Singh being offered the post of the chairman of the campaign committee.
Advani was the chairman of the campaign committee three times and on all the three occasions the BJP could form its Government. In 2004, the party fought the lok Sabha elections under Pramod Mahajan and Venkaiah Naidu, but was badly defeated.
likewise, when Advani was declared the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate in 2009, the campaign committee was handed over to Arun Jaitley. At that time, Rajnath Singh was party president. This time Rajnath Singh is both the party president as well as the chairman of the campaign committee. BJP leaders are hopeful that what Mahajan and Jaitley could not achieve, Rajnath will.
BJP stock rising in south
The BJP has a very thin mass base in the South and the Northeast. But after Narendra Modi’s elevation, the party is expected to expand its base in south India. In Karnataka, the BJP is trying to regain some of its lost ground with the possible return of former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa. likewise, in Tamil Nadu, Modi shares a good rapport with Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, who may eventually join the NDA. Andhra Pradesh, too, augurs well for the party. Recently, YS Jaganmohan Reddy praised Modi; even TDP leader N Chandrababu Naidu is keeping his options open as far as his party’s alliance with the BJP is concerned. So, at present, the BJP’s stock in the South appears to be rising with Modi at the helm of affairs.
JD(U)'s fodder CONNECTION
Former Bihar Chief Minister and RJD president lalu Prasad Yadav has been convicted in one of the cases in the fodder scam. Following his five-year sentence he has now lost his lok Sabha seat in Parliament. It’s, however, not just the RJD which has been hit by the verdict. JD(U) MP Jagdish Sharma has also been convicted and jailed for four years. Former Bihar Chief Minister Jagannath Mishra, who joined the JD(U) and was occupying a post equivalent to a ministerial status, is also faced with a similar fate. Mishra’s son is a minister in the Nitish Kumar Government.
The connection between the two parties doesn’t end here. The Ranchi High Court has directed the CBI to submit a report on the role of Nitish Kumar and Shivanand Tiwari in the fodder scam by November 22. In fact, Shyam Bihari Sinha, the kingpin of the fodder scam, has said in his statement that he had given Rs 1 crore to Nitish Kumar and Rs 30-35 lakh to Shivanand Tiwari.
Status quo in CPM
It’s an incessant downward slide for the CPI(M), the most dominant of the left parties. After the lok Sabha and Assembly elections, the party has lost the panchayat and local polls in urban areas. There is now a growing chorus for change in the State leadership. A former Speaker of the lok Sabha, once a veteran leader in the party, too has said that the CPI(M) must seriously think about changing its State leadership. Party sources say that right now it is not thinking in this direction. It will fight the next lok Sabha elections with the present set of leaders. In Delhi, Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury will be in command, while in West Bengal Biman Bose and Suryakanta Mishra will look after the party till the 2014 elections. There’s, however, consensus that the CPI(M) will have to change its strategy and reach out to its core voters.
The waiting game
There is very little possibility that in the next two weeks the Congress and the BJP will announce the names of their candidates for the Assembly elections in four States due this winter. Both the parties are of the view that in these States, the fight will be a close one. In this scenario, victory and defeat will depend on the selection of candidates. That is why the BJP is taking time in declaring its candidates. A senior BJP leader says that the name of most candidates will be declared only after Dussehra.
The Congress usually declares the name of its candidates on the last day of the nomination. So, there is hardly any surprise if the announcement remains a secret till Diwali. In Madhya Pradesh, the party has postponed the meeting of its screening committee for a week. It is believed that an internal survey is currently under way in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Names will be finalised only after the report is out.