Elections in five States are over, and now all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh. Prashant Kishor is trying to unite the Congress on the ground level. The BJP has also started its campaign with PM Narendra Modi’s rally at Saharanpur on May 26. The Samajwadi Party is also in action mode after releasing its candidate list.
Seeing all these developments, people are saying that Mayawati is far behind in preparations for the elections, which is surprising because usually she would have been the first one to start the planning. leaders of her party claim that this time she has come up with a different formula.
It is being said that this time Mayawati is not going to announce her candidates in advance. Of course, she will prepare the list for all 403 seats, but will announce the names only after the elections are declared. At the same time, she has made it clear that all her sitting MlAs will be contesting again. This way, she has minimised the risk of the hopping game of those who are already MlAs of the party. She has also apparently decided to give tickets to all leaders who join the BSP after leaving the SP, and this can cause a stir in Mulayam Singh Yadav’s party.
This time Mayawati will also make changes in the caste equation for ticket distribution. In the last elections, she had given tickets to 74 Brahmin candidates, but this time probably the number of such candidates will be limited to 50. last time, Mayawati had given tickets to 85 Dalit candidates, and this time it will go up to 100 or more. This means she will give 15 general seats to Dalit candidates. In the same manner, Mayawati had given tickets to 85 Muslim candidates, but this time the number might go up to 100.
Mayawati may increase the number of candidates from ultra-backward castes to counter the SP and BJP. It is to be noted that the SP has decided to send Beni Prasad Verma and Vishambhar Prasad Nishad to Rajya Sabha, and this is nothing but according to the calculation of non-Yadav backward votes.
In the same manner, the BJP has appointed KP Maurya as the State President. To counter all this, Mayawati will increase the number of candidates from non-Yadav backward castes. By the next month, all candidates will be informed about their seats but the announcement will be made later.
RESTlESS AJIT SINGH
In the run-up to the UP elections, RlD leader Ajit Singh is getting restless. It seems that one by one all parties are shutting their doors on him. First, he had talks with the JDU and there was speculation that he would remain in the front which was in the offing under the leadership of the Congress. But negotiations reached an impasse when he demanded a Rajya Sabha seat and the post of State President for his son.
After that, he approached the BJP. But there too no breakthrough was made due to his ambitions. In fact, BJP leaders started talking about a merger instead of an alliance. However, there’s still a sliver of hope for him with the BJP.
Now, some say Ajit is in touch with the two big regional parties of the State. According to sources, he is trying for any scope of alliance either with the ruling SP or with the main Opposition party, the BSP. These two parties have announced to fight the elections alone. But Ajit wants to go with them under any circumstance. Sources say that senior leaders of both parties are not showing much interest in him, but he has not given up yet. If he doesn’t get success there, he might knock on the doors of the Congress and BJP again.
EYE-OPENER FOR CONGRESS
Results of Assam elections might prove to be an eye-opener for the Congress. Before the polls, the party’s strategist, Prashant Kishor, had given many suggestions to Rahul Gandhi, including changing guard in the State. But Rahul had flatly refused. On the other hand, Tarun Gogoi was adamant not to surrender before any of the leaders as he had to establish his son’s political clout. This was the sole reason why Himanta Biswa Sarma left the Congress and joined the BJP. Kishor had also suggested that the Congress form an alliance with the AGP, but Rahul rejected this suggestion as well following Gogoi’s advice.
Now, after the party’s poll debacle in Assam probably Rahul and other leaders will take Kishor seriously. He has also given a few suggestions to Congress leaders for UP and Punjab. Though it is highly unlikely that the Congress will field either Rahul or Priyanka in UP, the party might accept Kishor’s advice of choosing a Brahmin CM candidate. Probably, the Congress will also accept Kishor’s suggestion to field former MPs and former Central Ministers in the Assembly Elections. The party’s list of candidates is also expected to be out soon.
In Punjab, Captain Amarinder Singh is ready to accept every advice of Kishor, and has gone to the extent of saying that he supports the party’s political strategist entirely. Irrespective of the issues, be it the patch-up with rebel leaders or selection of candidates, State and Central leadership will now never dare to ignore Kishor’s advice.
EVADING RESPONSIBIlITY
Usually, the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meet is held after every election to discuss the results. However, party leaders haven’t yet met after the recent Assembly Election results. Of the 822 seats in five States, the BJP won only 64, but on the evening of the result day, a meeting of the party’s Parliamentary Board was held and PM Modi also participated in it. But the Congress didn’t feel the need to analyse its own performance in the polls.
Sources in the Congress say some leaders close to Sonia Gandhi were responsible for deferring the CWC meeting. Although, AK Antony was said to be in favour of convening the meeting, some other leaders argued that the party had been thrown out of power in two States, and if the meet had happened, people would have demanded that responsibility be fixed. There were apprehensions that the media too would have raised questions after the meeting, including the oft-repeated one over Rahul’s leadership skills.
Hence, it was decided to defer the meet. leaders of the party argued that Rajiv Gandhi’s death anniversary (May 21) would fall soon after the result declaration and given Sonia’s pre-scheduled visit to Raebareli, the meeting should not be convened right away.
There are speculations that the party has to take a decision on its President in the CWC meeting, and there are attempts to build consensus for giving the party command to Rahul.
SP’S CHANGING EQUATIONS
The power equation has changed in the SP, and is expected to change more as new faces enter the House. When the party had decided to give command of the State to Akhilesh Yadav after the last Assembly Elections, Shivpal Yadav was not in its favour. Of course, Ram Gopal Yadav had fully supported the decision. Gradually, a good chemistry developed between Akhilesh and Shivpal, and Ram Gopal felt isolated. When the decision on Rajya Sabha seats was to be taken, Ram Gopal opposed both outsiders — Amar Singh and Beni Prasad Verma — but nobody listened to him.
That is why it is being said that Delhi and not lucknow will be the new battlefield of the party. Ram Gopal is the leader of the SP in Rajya Sabha. Amar and Beni have to work in Rajya Sabha as per his strategy. But there is least possibility for this. Both are masters of their own will and won’t bow down before anyone except Mulayam.
This might cause tension between Rajya Sabha MPs of the party in the Monsoon Session. On one hand will be Ram Gopal along with Jaya Bachchan and the wife of Azam Khan, and on the other will be Amar and Beni. Mulayam will have to work hard to ensure co-ordination among them.
THE CONFUSION PARTY
leaders of the Congress are creating deliberate confusion under a particular strategy. Those loyal to the Gandhi family were well aware that Rahul would come under attack after the poll results, so all preparations were made to save him. For this, many veteran leaders along with leaders of Rahul’s core team became active. People are saying that three things were decided under a strategy — Sonia would continue as party President, Rahul would be given command of the party despite the shocking results, and Priyanka would be brought into active politics.
Interestingly, many leaders were roped in to prove that the results were not a jolt to the party. Old friends of the Gandhi family, such as Mani Shankar Aiyar, used data and intellectual arguments to prove that the Congress was still far ahead of the BJP. A campaign was launched on social media to compare the seats won by the BJP and Congress. Congress leaders argued that in five States, the Congress had got almost double seats than the BJP.
To counter this, the BJP held Rahul responsible for his party’s defeat. And when Mamata Banerjee attacked Rahul, BJP leaders got more weapons in their armoury. While the Congress was running ‘Save Rahul’ campaign, the BJP was running ‘Finish Rahul’ campaign. Some Congress leaders are of the view that in just four days so much confusion was created so that the focus would shift from Rahul.
GRAND AllIANCE IN TROUBlE
All is not well in the alliance between the JDU, RJD and Congress in Bihar. RJD leaders are getting back to their old business. People are saying that lalu Prasad Yadav didn’t stop leaders who gave statements against Nitish Kumar and also failed to take any action against them. He only advised JDU leaders to just pay attention to him and not to what other RJD leaders were saying. But he is speaking the least and other veteran leaders of his party are saying a lot.
last week, RJD Vice-President Raghuvansh Prasad Singh criticised Nitish while standing outside lalu’s residence. Former MP Prabhunath Singh was also standing with him. Interestingly, lalu didn’t reject any of his statements and is said to have raised questions about Nitish’s decisions on the liquor ban and the law and order problem. He emphasised that Nitish’s Government had been derailed.
Probably, RJD leaders are upset as they think they are being targetted in their own Government. Right from the lalu’s closed group to the open circle of RJD, it is being discussed that more than 3,000 Yadavs have been nabbed in liquor cases. In the Rocky Yadav case, the arrest of Bindi and Manorama Yadav has also not gone down well with RJD leaders.