There is a neck-to-neck fight between the Congress and the BJP in the four States where Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in October-November. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is believed to be ahead of its main rival, but only with a slight margin. It’s quite possible that the two States may throw up a hung Assembly. last time the Congress had won 96 seats in Rajasthan and formed its Government with the BSP’s help. This time it is speculated that the BJP will get four to five seats short of majority, forcing it to look for allies. One of the surveys says that the BJP will get what the Congress got last time, and the Congress will repeat the 2008 BJP’s performance.
For Madhya Pradesh, it is believed that the BJP will get lesser seats than what it had got in the last two Assembly elections. In 2003, there was a wave in favour of Uma Bharti and the BJP had got 173 seats. In 2008, the number of BJP seats came down to 143. This time the party’s seats may decrease further but it may still get a majority on its own. As for Delhi and Chhattisgarh, BJP sources say that the party may get a simple majority. Its leaders are relying on the Ajit Jogi factor. They say that if Jogi disrupts the game plan of some of the Congress candidates, then the BJP may easily cross the majority mark. Otherwise, Chhattisgarh may throw a hung Assembly.
In Delhi, key to power supposedly lies with Arvind Kejariwal. In two different surveys, it has been said that the Aam Aadmi Party may get eight to nine seats in the national Capital. According to these surveys, no one will cross the half-way mark, though the BJP may be the number one party.
Silence over MODI
With the exception of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar — who strongly oppose Narendra Modi — most regional parties are keeping quiet on the issue of the Gujarat Chief Minister being made the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. The silence is strategic. These parties are awaiting the Assembly election results in four States to see if there is any wave in Modi’s favour. If the BJP performs well, then some of the parties which were once part of the NDA may rejoin it. Modi has realised that regional parties are waiting for the November results. The party believes that if it fares well in the Assembly elections, then J Jayalalithaa, Naveen Patnaik and Chandrababu Naidu may join the NDA before the lok Sabha elections.
Congress’ Media classes
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has started a unique training for his party men. First, around 20 selected spokespersons were given detailed information about the Food Security Bill. They were given training on how they should introduce Bill to the masses and how they should defend it in TV debates. A month later, these spokespersons were called again for media workshop — this time for the land Acquisition Bill.
Now, the Congress has chosen around 50 spokespersons on how they should speak on TV on various issues. Former Home Secretary GK Pillai took classes on Naxalism and internal security. He gave lectures on ground-level problems and remedies to tackle the issue. Former UGC chief Sukhadeo Thorat and Kapil Sibal took classes on higher education. Radha Kumar talked about the Kashmir issue, while Sayeeda Hamid informed them about social development. It will be interesting to see how this workshop is going to improve the image of the ruling party plagued with so many problems and issues.
Rahul Vs MODi tussle
Congress leaders often claim that the next general election will not be just about Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. Yet, not a single day goes by when they don’t put the Congress vice-president into this Modi-versus-Rahul tussle. Ashok Gehlot and Tarun Gogoi — Chief Ministers of Congress-ruled Rajasthan and Assam respectively — openly said that Rahul Gandhi should be made the prime ministerial candidate. Thereafter, Congress spokesperson Bhakta Charan Das stoked the fire by saying that Modi, unlike Rahul, was not a national leader. Before that Jairam Ramesh said that Rahul Gandhi never bragged what he had done, hinting towards the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. So, Modi versus Rahul debate is set to remain till the 2014 lok Sabha elections.
Going Back to BJP
Narendra Modi is soon going to start a campaign to bring back those leaders who were once part of the party. He will also hold talks with former allies like the INlD, which is likely to come back to the NDA’s fold. likewise, in Karnataka, BS Yeddyurappa is all set to return to the BJP. Those opposed to his return are on the margins and Modi is now directly in touch with the former Karnataka Chief Minister. likewise, in Jharkhand, Babulal Marandi is likely to come back to the BJP again. Initially, the RSS was instrumental in the return of Kalyan Singh and Uma Bharti through Nitin Gadkari; this process will continue with Rajnath Singh and Modi.
WHAT ABOUT JAT VOTESIJ
After the Muzaffarnagar riots, there’s confusion over Jat votes. All parties are busy doing politics for Muslim votes. When Congress leaders went to Muzaffarnagar, they only met riot-affected Muslim families. Mulayam Singh is facing charges of favouring Muslims. This explains why Jat leader Sompal Shastri has not accepted the Samajwadi Party ticket from Baghpat. Thereafter the Samajwadi Party has announced the name of Muslim candidate Ghulam Mohammed. Ajit Singh’s RlD is also targeting the Akhilesh Government. There is speculation that Sompal Sashtri may join the BJP. After riots, Jats are probably more inclined towards the BJP, though the BKU too is in running for their votes. Understandably, the way most parties have raised their concerns for Muslims alone, Jats may eventually move towards the BJP.