There was a time when the BSP, NCP and RJD were in the race to become national parties. Now, AAP and JDU are in the same race. The two parties have to perform well in four States so that they can get the status they desire. The real reason behind this is to project their leaders as PM candidates in 2019
There was a time when the BSP, NCP and RJD were in the race to become national parties after the Congress and BJP. Now, AAP and JDU are in the same race. After being badly defeated in the lok Sabha Elections, AAP plans to move ahead gradually. Under this strategy, the party has decided to fight elections in Punjab and Goa. Elections will be held in these States next January. After that, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections will be held at the end of next year. It is being said that AAP will fight in these two States as well.
In the same manner, JDU is projecting its candidates for Assam elections, which are scheduled for next month. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar will also go there for campaigning.
Next year, JDU will fight Punjab and Uttar Pradesh elections too. In both these States, there is a possibility of an alliance between JDU and Congress. There is a good number of Bihari immigrants in both States and they constitute majority votes on the 17 seats. However, JDU and AAP have to perform well in four States so that they can get the status of a national party. The real reason behind this is to project their leaders as PM candidates in 2019 lok Sabha Elections.
lEGISlATIVE WORK ON HOlD
It seems highly unlikely that the Government would be able to accomplish any important legislative work in this Parliament Session. All legislative work could be suspended till the Assembly Elections in five States are over. The Government was hopeful of getting the GST Bill passed in the next half of the session, but now the chances seem bleak.
Those who were in support of the Bill are now hesitant. TMC will not support this Bill due to political compulsions as State elections are around the corner. There is a clamour for Muslim votes in West Bengal and that is the reason why leaders of the party feel that TMC must not be seen supporting the BJP or the Central Government. In this scenario, the Government will get a big jolt as TMC had been supporting the GST Bill all this while.
Jayalalithaa has always been against the GST Bill, so there is no chance that she will support it during election time.
On the other hand, the Congress and BJP are at loggerheads on many issues, so a compromise is unlikely. The Congress is not happy about the row over Rahul Gandhi’s citizenship, while the BJP is miffed with the comparison of RSS and ISIS. Tension between the Opposition and Government has increased over the Aadhar Bill too. In this scenario, the Government is bound to face problems in legislative works. That is why there is a chance that two more Bills, along with GST, will be stuck.
UNAFFECTED BY THE STING
Just before the elections in West Bengal, a sting operation has become the cause for a tug of war between the ruling and Opposition parties. In this sting operation, around a dozen TMC leaders were allegedly shown taking bribe. leaders of Congress and TMC are considering it a trump card. Though sources in TMC claim Mamata Banerjee is not taking it seriously and might not even take action against any of the leaders. If necessary, notice will be sent to one or two of them.
However, her party has decided to give an apt reply to this. MPs and leaders of TMC are citing the example of a sting operation done in Delhi in 2014. They are saying that even in Delhi, many people were implicated in a sting operation. There were allegations against Kumar Vishwas and Alka lamba, but Arvind Kejriwal did not take any action, rather countered the Opposition parties and alleged that this was nothing but political vendetta. Mamata is treading the same path. She said that the tapes of the 2014 sting operation have been doctored and released now only to defame her.
The issue of sting operation could increase the problems of Rajya Sabha MP KD Singh. Mathew Samuel, the brain behind the sting operation, used to work with a news magazine of which KD Singh is the owner. Samuel had started working on the sting operation when he worked with the magazine, and that is why many leaders are raising questions about KD Singh.
A PROBlEM OF PlENTY
This year’s Rajya Sabha elections have put the BJP in a dilemma. For the past many years, the party had two Muslim faces that entered Parliament from different Houses Shahnawaz Hussain in lok Sabha and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi in Rajya Sabha. Now, Najma Heptulla has been added to this list. There is no Muslim face of the BJP in lok Sabha as Hussain was defeated in the last elections. On the other hand, apart from Naqvi and Heptulla, MJ Akbar is also in Rajya Sabha.
Naqvi and Akbar will retire in July. It is almost certain that Naqvi will be elected from UP again. Probably this time Akbar will not be re-elected from Jharkhand, but will rather be nominated. Though this is also true that Salim Khan is also a strong contender from the nominated quota. Sources say he had been promised a Rajya Sabha seat after the Padma award controversy last year, and can be nominated on the seat vacated by his former partner, Javed Akhtar.
Sources in the BJP say Hussain is trying to get a Rajya Sabha seat either from Madhya Pradesh or Bihar. Apart from him, Sabir Ali is also said to be a contender for Rajya Sabha. That means, this year, five Muslim faces of the BJP —Hussain, Naqvi, Akbar, Ali and Khan — are contenders for Rajya Sabha seat and the party can give green signal for only two of these.
ClAMOUR FOR THE CHAIR
This is election year in UP and there are many contenders for the CM post within the BJP. The party also has to take a decision on the new State President, which is said to be the reason why the party is not announcing its CM candidate now. Supporters of Yogi Adityanath demand that he be declared the CM candidate or they will boycott the elections. The sadhus who back Yogi have also demanded the same. He is so serious about his claim that when Anupam Kher criticised him at a function in Kolkata, he became angry and called the actor a villain in real life.
However, there is a different story playing out between State President lakshmi Kant Vajpayee and organisation General Secretary Sunil Bansal. When Bansal called a meeting to discuss the plans of six big rallies in the State, Vajpayee was not invited. Vajpayee has to be replaced but the decision will not be easy. Amid all this, Varun Gandhi is also staking his claim.
CONG AND CASTE EQUATION
Strategists of the Congress are not able to understand how to cope with the caste equation in UP. At present, there is no core vote bank of the party in the State. So, discussions are going on to find out how to attract one or two major castes. Sources say this has been discussed in the recent meetings of party leaders. The party is hopeful about Brahmin voters. That is why the name of Sheila Dikshit has been proposed either for party in-charge of UP or CM candidate in the State. Though many leaders say the party will not gain anything from thinking about Dikshit. They say the fact that senior leaders are mulling over her name proves that the Congress doesn’t have any strong Brahmin leader.
However, the truth is different. There are many good Brahmin faces in the party, such as Rajesh Mishra, Jitin Prasada, Pramod Tiwari, Rita Bahuguna Joshi and Satish Sharma. The party can send Satish Sharma to Rajya Sabha again.
Meanwhile, Rahul wants to tap into the Dalit and Muslim vote bank. Not just him, even P Chidambaram and Ghulam Nabi Azad are indulging in similar political tactics. In-charge General Secretary of UP Madhusudan Mistry has even prepared a roadmap for this. That is why it is being said that Rahul wants him to continue on the post. In this scenario, Pl Punia and Salman Khurshid might also become prominent. For Thakur votes, the party can also give a big role to Sanjay Singh from Amethi.