It may strike one as far too premature to talk about the next US presidential race in 2016 but it is never too early for American pollsters and pundits. Opinion polls in America are in the nature of an industry that keeps churning out all sorts of findings round the year. So a peep into a hazy 2016 has begun in right earnest within barely two months of President Barack Obama beginning his second four-year term at the White House.
Some of the pointers this week hold out the tantalising possibility of a very different Clinton-Bush race. A possible Hillary Clinton-Jeb Bush encounter. It is another matter that it may take a year or more to know whether both would indeed be throwing their hats into the ring. Hillary Clinton has just stepped down after serving the Obama administration for four years as America’s top diplomat. Over the past year or two, she has repeatedly brushed the talk of taking another shot at the presidency, but nobody has really taken her at face value. The general expectation is that she would take stock of the situation by next year.
Jeb Bush, son of former President George HW Bush, who was defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992, used to be talked about as a possible presidential candidate in the early run-up to the 2008 and 2012 races. But the 60-year-old Bush who has been Governor of Florida for two terms did not show any inclination at that time. This past week, however, he has dropped broad hints that he would take a view somewhere down the road on whether or not to run in 2016.
“I’m not saying yes, I’m just not saying no,” Bush said in the course of television appearances this week to promote his book, Immigration Wars, adding: “I’ve accomplished some things in my life that allow me now to have that kind of discretion, to be able to think about it.” Pundits were quick to discern in his comment a sharp contrast to the manner in which he used to rule out any presidential bid earlier on.
Although nothing has been heard about Hillary Clinton after she left office last month, except that she will be giving speeches for a hefty fee, pollsters remain busy crunching numbers. A new national poll from Quinnipiac University says Clinton enjoys a substantial lead over all other prospective candidates for 2016, including Vice-President Joe Biden, in case he decides to contest. Clinton also runs ahead of the most popular Republican contender, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, by a 45-37 per cent margin.
She enjoys a wide 50-34 per cent advantage over Florida Senator Marco Rubio and the 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, Congressman Paul Ryan. Taking stock of Clinton’s enormous starting advantage, Quinnipiac’s Assistant Director Peter Brown wrote: “She obviously is by far the best known and her more than 20 years in the public spotlight allows her to create a very favourable impression on the American people.”
The survey did not assess the chances of Jeb Bush as he has just provided the first inkling of his thinking on a presidential bid. One of his former aides, Cory Tilley, said after Bush’s remarks in TV interviews: “He’s sent a very strong signal this week that he, for the first time, is going to seriously, seriously consider running. It’s the signal that a lot of people have been waiting to hear.” Jeb Bush left the Florida Governor’s office in 2007 after serving two four-year terms.
Having been at the helm of a State with a large immigrant population, Bush, unlike most other Republicans, have advocated a strong outreach to Hispanics and other immigrants with a more accommodating immigration policy.
“You have to connect with them on an emotional level first before you can — connect with them, you know, with, with policy. And we’re not doing a very good job with that right now,” he says. He projected that view in the run-up to the last election, but few of his party colleagues paid attention. However, after the defeat of party nominee Mitt Romney, the Republicans by and large are receptive to the idea of a more inclusive immigration policy. But the party’s conservative base continues to oppose any amnesty in the name of putting the millions of illegal immigrants on a legal path to citizenship.
In his book, however, Bush puts forward his vision for immigration policy. He has refrained from including a path to citizenship, clearly in the belief that his party would not support it.
The book, after all, had been written last year. little wonder that in his TV appearances, Bush has had to backpedal, indicating that he would be game for granting citizenship under a comprehensive immigration reform package. Democrats, notably Senate leader Harry Reid, have seized on Bush’s contradictory positions, remarking that he has ‘made a fool of himself’ and his position on immigration was not evolving, but devolving. It remains to be seen if Bush’s line on immigration reforms enthuses his party sufficiently enough to rally behind him if he opts for the Presidential bid.