The euphoria in the BJP that the afterglow of the Modi triumph would leave opponents across States in a state of shock, and ensure success for the party, should now end. Results of the by-poll are a reminder
It would be unfair to call the BJP’s defeat to the lalu Prasad-Nitish Kumar-Congress alliance in the Bihar by-election a referendum on the Narendra Modi Government. Frankly, it is too early for people to make an assessment of the Modi Government. That apart, local issues and configurations proved to be more important than any overarching national sentiment. To cite two opposite examples, if the loss in Bellary in Karnataka cannot be blamed on Mr Modi, the victory in two Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh cannot be attributed to him either.
However, it is not as if the by-elections, particularly in Karnataka and Bihar, had no lessons for the BJP. They exposed the limitations of the BJP in an election situation unrelated to a Modi wave. They exposed the BJP’s organisational and State-level infirmities. They established that the Congress Government in Karnataka, elected after forging a backward caste-Dalit-Muslim alliance, remains formidable. They established that BJP can still win the Bihar Assembly election in 2015, but that result is anything but a given.
If nothing else, the euphoria that the afterglow of the Modi triumph would leave opponents across States in a state of shock — and would ensure success for the BJP — should now end. True, a full-fledged Assembly election in Bihar will see greater voter turnout than the small polling percentage in the recent by-election. It will also intensify the contradictions between Mr Kumar and Prasad’s constituencies. Concerns about Prasad’s return to power — directly or by proxy — will get the BJP incremental voters.
Yet, it needs to be admitted by the BJP that winning a simple majority on its own in Bihar remains a tall order. It will require an extremely well-managed campaign over the next one year to present the BJP as the hope for a new Bihar and a new awakening in the State. This will need as much effort and intellectual input as the campaign to elect Mr Modi as Prime Minister. This project will have to be complemented with work on the ground, including an identification of fence-sitting voter groups and the projection of a leader, probably, Mr Sushil Kumar Modi.
A similar momentum will have to be built for the Uttar Pradesh election in 2017, though that is some time away. The energies Mr Modi excited among young voters — including voters from castes, communities and families that had hitherto not backed the BJP — will have to be tapped into once more. The 2014 lok Sabha election proved these energies can be harnessed and caste barriers can be overcome. However, to expect this will happen almost naturally in 2017, as a follow-up to 2014, is foolish.
In Uttar Pradesh, as in Bihar, quick-fix campaigning just before the election is no substitute for an organic mission, with the selling of a dream, the projection of optimism and economic transformation, and the pushing of the right social coalitions and faces. To believe, as some tend to, that themes such as ‘love jihad’ could become principal electoral platforms by 2017, would be unrealistic. It would also be unwise to underestimate Ms Mayawati’s ability to put together the sort of rainbow coalition that helped the Bahujan Samaj Party win the election in lucknow in 2007.
The immediate election challenges are in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is likely to win big. The Congress-NCP regime is defending a very mixed record, going back 15 years and three terms. There is propulsion for change, and the BJP-Sena combine is the only alternative.
In Haryana, Mr Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s Congress is set to lose after 10 years of rule. Following its success in the lok Sabha election, the BJP engaged with the idea of going it alone and attempting to win an absolute majority. In recent days, a dilemma has troubled the party: Bravely competing without allies or pragmatically tying up with the Chautala family’s Indian National lok Dal. In Jharkhand, the concern of a grand alliance or understanding of the non-BJP parties remains. Of course, the diminution of Mr Babulal Marandi’s breakaway group and the flight of many of its leaders to the BJP should offset that.
It is possible all obstacles will be overcome and Haryana and Jharkhand will be easily won by the BJP. Nevertheless, for that to happen, a serious and localised election campaign is necessary. In the weeks since the lok Sabha election, complacency has set in. It is up to Mr Amit Shah, the new BJP president, to shake things up. The Modi experience has shown the BJP that organising election campaigns and converting a general mood into firm votes is a full-time, 24/7 exercise; it is not a part-time job. Mr Shah himself demonstrated while running the Uttar Pradesh lok Sabha campaign. That was the Modi election template; the BJP needs to institutionalise it.
That this is easier said than done is apparent from the state of the BJP in Delhi. The party that won seven out of seven lok Sabha seats is far from confident of attaining a majority should an Assembly election be held today. There is appreciable disquiet about the performance of the three municipal corporations in the city, all run by the BJP. That apart, the Aam Aadmi Party retains a presence. Finally, there is a perception that the Congress, which got hammered in the December 2013 Assembly election, has bottomed out in Delhi, and should Ms Sheila Dikshit return to State politics, will win more votes than it did the previous time, cutting into both the BJP and AAP.
Could this mean another hung AssemblyIJ Could this mean the BJP will gain from a split in the non-BJP voteIJ Nobody is certain, and this uncertainty is reflected in the BJP’s unwillingness to rush into an election. Of course, how long an election can be delayed remains an issue. By this winter, Delhi would need a Government — or an election.
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