Russia and the West face off over Crimea
With the semi-autonomous Parliament of Crimea voting to merge with Russia, following the ouster of Ukraine's pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovich, the crisis in that former Soviet state has become even more complex. Crimea, with its Russian-speaking population, has always favoured close ties with Russia; however, few had predicted this decision of the Crimean Parliament which is being widely perceived as a diplomatic coup for the Kremlin. At this point, it remains unclear if the decision will hold up to legal scrutiny or if it is in keeping with international laws. Some argue that it violates the Constitution of Ukraine while others point to the manner in which Kosovo split from Serbia as international precedent. Also, a referendum on the parliamentary decision has been scheduled for March 16 and there is no guarantee that the people will vote to secede from Ukraine. They last time they were asked, they had elected (though by a thin majority) to stay out of Russia.
Either way, for now, the vote has strengthened the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin who has been pilloried by the international community (read: the US and the EU) for effectively ‘invading' Ukraine, by sending military men (who bear no insignia) into Crimea, after his man in Kiev was removed from office. On his part, Mr Putin has denied any wrongdoing. He has pointed to Russia's lease agreement with Ukraine that allows Moscow to station 161 aircraft, 388 warships and 25,000 armed men in Crimea while clarifying that the men patrolling the peninsula are not his soldiers. He has also made clear that he does not intend to annex Crimea although he upholds the right of the Crimean people, many of whom are ethnic Russians, to self-determination. It is too early to tell if Mr Putin is serious about taking over Crimea — once the jewel in Russia's imperial crown and now of immense strategic import to Moscow — or if he is only strengthening his hand against the US-led West. Crimea's secession, after all, will not go unnoticed in the similarly semi-autonomous but restive republics under Russian control.
Moreover, even though the Ukrainian crisis has fuelled fears of another Cold War, it is unlikely that either Mr Putin or the Western leaders want a global conflict of that scale. It is true that the US has moved to impose sanctions and travel restrictions on those who oppose the new Government in Kiev and the EU has announced punitive measures against Russia, but high-level negotiations between Moscow, Brussels and Washington, DC are also continuing simultaneously. In fact, on Thursday, Mr Putin had an hour long conversation with US President Barack Obama. Ultimately, it has to be acknowledged that few other countries have the kind of strategic interest in Ukraine that Russia has, as India’s national security adviser has noted in passing. Having said this though New Delhi should stick to the neutral stand it has taken on the issue.