let Kiev deal with mess; others must stay away
Brewing for two months now, the anti-Government protest in Ukraine turned violent earlier this month, claiming its first three fatalities this week, to become the country's biggest political crisis since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Even the Orange Revolution of 2004, which was also a popular movement against Mr Viktor Yanukovich who is now serving as President, was largely peaceful. Indeed, the level of resistance that has been on display in the capital city of Kiev — where protesters have clashed with riot police, barricaded the central square and set tyres ablaze in the football stadium which is emerging as the new flashpoint site — is unprecedented. In one provincial capital, a Governor has been forced to resign by an angry mob. A fragile peace now prevails after a ceasefire agreement was enforced. But unless the Government of President Yanukovich takes serious steps to calm the protesters, who have already dismissed his paltry reconciliatory measures and are possibly hoping the repeat the success of 2004, Ukraine will remain on the edge. At the crux of the problem lies Mr Yanukovich's refusal to sign a deal, in November 2013, aimed at strengthening ties with the European Union. This has dashed Ukraine's hopes of gaining at least a partial membership to the EU, and infuriated a large section of the population that is keen on improving relations with the West, in the hope that will allow them a better standard of living. The view from Moscow, however, is different. Ukraine's pivot to the West is considered to be a direct loss of Russian influence, and the Kremlin has consistently worked to protect its strategic interests in its backyard. Many perceive that Russia rewarded President Yanukovich for his ‘anti-West' decision with a multi-billion dollar bail-out package and by reducing gas prices in December 2013. Prior to that there were reports that the Kremlin had also rigged the trial of Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, the face of the (West-aligned) Orange Revolution who is now serving a prison term on corruption charges. On its part, the West too has sought to bring Ukraine within its own sphere of influence. For instance, it wholeheartedly supported Mr Viktor Yushchenko when he came to power after the 2004 revolution, encouraged Kiev to apply for membership to Western groupings including Nato and more recently demanded the freeing of Ms Tymoshenko.
In a sense, a quiet tug of war between the West and Russia has always been played out in the former Soviet republics. But with both the US and EU still suffering from an economic downturn on the one hand, and a resurgent Russia led by staunchly nationalist President Vladimir Putin on the other hand, the balance of power seems to have been disturbed. This has exacerbated the situation. To prevent further escalation, Moscow, Brussels and Washington, DC, all must keep out of the mess in the Ukraine and let Kiev solve its own problems.