India, China find common ground in Kabul
Amid heightened fears of a Taliban resurgence in post-2014 Afghanistan, it seems the war-torn country's neighbours are now forming loose alliances with one another to secure their interests there. Earlier this week, China, Russia and Pakistan met in Beijing to discuss the Afghan situation, and all three agreed to push for a greater role for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US-led Nato forces next year. Essentially a Eurasian security grouping, the SCO includes the key central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, apart from China and Russia. The group also accords India, Pakistan, Afghanistan observer status — thereby bringing together almost all of Kabul's regional stakeholders. Furthermore, the meeting in Beijing was preceded by a similar trilateral discussion among China, Russia and India in Moscow last month. Interestingly, that meeting also marked the beginning of an exclusive China-India bilateral dialogue on Afghanistan. New Delhi already has similar bilateral arrangements with Beijing with regard to West Asia and Africa, but in the case of Afghanistan, it has such an institutionalised mechanism only with the US. Against this backdrop the India-China bilateral has generated much interest, especially since the two countries are perceived to be on opposite sides of the ‘Pakistani divide' that has come to dictate almost every dialogue on the future of Afghanistan.
Of course, Beijing's decision to now reach over that divide so as to work with New Delhi is not an indication of a drift between China and Pakistan; the two countries still remain all-weather friends, and the Beijing meet that followed the Moscow dialogue is proof of that. But China realises that it has much to gain by cooperating with India in Afghanistan, even as it engages with Pakistan. Beijing is cautious because Islamabad plays a divisive power game in that country. China has huge investments in Afghanistan that range from oil fields to the three billion dollar copper mine project in Mes Aynak, just south of Kabul, where work is expected to begin soon. Chinese investments are expected to increase manifold in the forseeable future but their profitability remains threatened by political instability, especially if the Taliban takes over Kabul. In fact, Beijing fears that such a situation could hurt domestic stability in its far-flung western Xinjiang Province, where a Sunni Muslim (Uyghur) uprising is already brewing. It is quite possible that these concerns have led Beijing to expand its cooperation with Kabul to include training of Afghan soldiers even. Note that New Delhi shares Beijing's concerns regarding both the protection of its commercial investments as well containing Talibani terror.