Donald Trump may well become the next US President, though it is simply too early to be sure. But the surge in his rating shows an inclination of the voters of the US towards the Right, just as it has happened in India
The most serious position to adopt in politics is the Centre. Fareed Zakaria made this point on CNN recently. He held up the highly successful presidency of Mr Bill Clinton as an illustration.This, of course, was in the context of the run-up towards the US presidential election in 2016.
But how does Mr Zakaria’s notion fare in relationship to the ‘fastest growing major economy’ in the world, also its most populous democracy; and the oldest democracy, which is also the most powerful and rich country in the worldIJ
The Clinton presidency was indeed economically brilliant. Mr Clinton created over 21 million new jobs, raised the GDP significantly, took a budgetary deficit of 4.7 per cent in 1992 and turned it into 2.6 per cent surplus by 1997. He was lucky too, with record low oil prices; 1999 prices were a mere $10 a barrel, and ‘gasoline’ sold at 95 cents a gallon.
Mr Clinton appointed and supported Republican Alan Greenspan to manage interest rates with great success as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Mr Greenspan first came to be Fed Chairman in 1987, under reformist, anti-big Government/high taxation President Ronald Reagan. And he left after five consecutive terms, during which the American economy boomed for two decades straight. Mr Greenspan served without interruption under Presidents Reagan, George HW Bush, Clinton, and finally George W Bush; three out of four of them, Republicans — handing over to Mr Ben Bernanke in January 2006.
Things have not been so good for the US economy since. And in hindsight, many of Mr Greenspan’s monetarist and ‘easy money’ nostrums are being held responsible for the borrow-and-spend excesses.
In India, successive pre-election opinion polls suggest a victory in the Bihar legislative Assembly election for the NDA alliance. One just has to wonder why the promise of vikas counts for more than everything else.
Particularly, given the recent beef controversy and murders, attacks on Dalits, the Sahitya Akademi awardees returning their citations, lK Advani acolyte Sudheendra Kulkarni being inked, the growing intolerance, farmer distress and suicides, all alongside trenchant criticism of the Prime Minister for neither speaking up against, nor reigning in, the Sangh parivar/NDA ‘fringe elements’. And this, coming after the monsoon session of Parliament was washed out with another set of controversies.
The use of a different yardstick to judge the Modi Government has become routine. Though, it does seem strange how controversy after controversy seems to be raked up, almost as if they are being manufactured.
Recently, Chief Justice of India Hl Dattu observed that he found it peculiar that there have been no further Vyapam scam-related deaths reported since the CBI took over the probe monitored by the Supreme Court.
However, if this latest Bihar poll result comes to pass; at a minimum, the formulas and assumptions on the State’s electorate will have failed. The NDA is apparently set to win over 160 of the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly.
And, if that happens, the ‘grand alliance’ will be routed. The rising challenge to the Modi administration over the past months, after the NDA’s defeat in the Delhi election, will quickly disintegrate.
Mr Modi’s personal popularity ratings, which are impressive, and not only in Bihar, according to a Mint/Instavaani poll in August, and yet another Pew poll in September 2015, will soar, and even greater authority will come to his elbow. But can a win in the Bihar Assembly election be understood as an over-arching voter approval for the centrist, developmental approach of the Prime MinisterIJ This, in spite of the accusations that his party and Government are promoting a majoritarian agendaIJ
The Opposition accuses the Modi administration of communal polarisation and saffronisation, both of institutions and national narratives. But voters, if the opinion polls are accurate, do not seem to care much.
In America, meanwhile, flamboyant businessman-cum-presidential aspirant Donald Trump leads the GOP’s list of contenders. This suggests that the silent majority is reacting to the liberal policies of the Obama Administration.
Mr Trump’s appeal, his continued lead in opinion polls, might just be suggesting this. The public may be endorsing his can-do brand of Reaganesque politics. He wants to make America great again, militarily and economically, and the public is responding favourably. Mr Trump’s politics may well be to the far right of the GOP, but is the American public too, by backing him, wanting to return towards the CentreIJ
They probably do not want to particularly address the feminist radicalism of gender politics, after electing a man of colour to two terms in office. So they seem sceptical about both former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, front-runner for the Democrats; and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, amongst the Republican line-up too.
Centrism may also explain the decision to hold off at the US Federal Reserve Bank. Chairman Janet Yellen decided not to raise interest rates once again recently. A rate hike, which some see as overdue, would signal a change of policy. In anticipation of further hikes in series later, this might lead to a sharply strengthening dollar. But Ms Yellen, and the business community in America, would dearly like to see a two per cent inflation rate arrive first!
This would signal that all the thousands of billions of dollars spent on quantitative easing since 2008, plus the nearly zero rate of interest, have managed to lift economic activity off the floor. Enough, to withstand a series of, say, 0.25 per cent rate hike going forward.
There’s concern also for how an American rate hike may impact the international arena, including many of America’s trading partners, now that America is ostensibly growing again.
Not only would America’s recovery be threatened if its buyers couldn’t afford to buy its offerings, but the cascading effect would aggravate the challenges to world trade, already much slowed by economic and financial difficulties in Europe, China, and the oil exporting nations.
Indian politics may also be changing: From socialism and Nehruvian pluralism towards an assertive Hindu Rashtra, but one with concern and due regard for the minorities. It is dawning on the kicking and screaming old guard that the NDA could be in power for a decade or more, judged from present trends, and the ground narrative may be forever altered. likewise, Mr Donald Trump could well become the next President of America and stay for eight years too. This, not because he is a hate-mongering, loud-mouth, Right-wing looney, but because his candidature, salience, and possible eventual victory signals a return to the Centre for American politics.
So then, are both Mr Modi and Mr Trump custodians of Mr Zakaria’s ‘most serious position’IJ Appearances, however much they may be negatively hyped, can sometimes be deceptive.