Trump assumed office following victory in an election held under an established procedure. A majority of the US electorate has endorsed his policies, but is it fair to pre-judge him even before he has settled into officeIJ
Within two days of Donald Trump becoming the 45th President of the world’s leadership country, protests against him broke in over 600 cities across the globe. Most vocal and densest protesters are in the US itself and most of them claim to be ‘liberals’. They have no tolerance and patience for an individual who differs with them since he has been elected inspite of them.
Trump assumed office following victory in an election held under an established and accepted procedure. A majority of the US electorate has endorsed his policies, which obviously sound weird and outlandish to the established ruling elite. But is it fair or democratic to pre-judge and berate him even before he has settled into officeIJ
Nearer home, we too have a similar experience. Self-proclaimed ‘liberal’ cabal and the left pack have been on war against Prime Minister Narendra Modi for over a decade. Defying prophets of dooms, Modi not only won the 2014 lok Sabha election hands down, but continues to hit the popularity charts (as the latest survey in a weekly magzine India Today show), as a successful leader with ever increasing mass support. His ideological foes have been reduced to stitching alliances to combat him.
But what about TrumpIJ The new President of the world’s largest economy that also has high average per capita income ($15 trillion in GDP and $35,000 in per capita income roughly with no country coming even anywhere near both) is elected on a platform of turning back on globalisation. Trump is telling even his traditional allies to mind their business themselves, pay for their security themselves, it is now ‘America First’.
Jobs in America will be for only Americans. The Mexicans, hoping to sneak into next door US, will soon face a real concrete wall reminiscent of the hated Berlin Wall, the source of terrorism world-wide is one religion and we shall destroy the terror merchants and block anyone bearing the stamp of that religion from getting into the Trump territory etc.
Many analysts are warning the new President that his policies would only result in facilitating China to tighten its grip over Asian satellites and pursue its ‘Silk Road’ truly ‘One Belt, One Road’ under Chinese hegemony. Will economically strong and prosperous South Korea and Japan be forced to accept the leadership that China wants to impose on the vast conglomeration of Asian countries —the very thing American Presidents so far wanted to avoidIJ We have to wait for an answer.
Both US Presidents viz, GW Bush and Barack Obama sought to strengthen American presence in East and South and South-east Asia and the Pacific by building up regional powers like India and Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and underline Washington’s strong backing for weaker nations like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia in standing up to China’s assertive power bullying.
The internal forces in Hong Kong for greater freedom from Chinese control are asserting themselves. The Chinese roughness is demonstrated in the country’s refusal to accept the international court’s rejection of its claims in the South China Sea islands and continuing to build new Air and Naval facilities there ignoring the claims of seven adjoining countries.
If Trump wants to withdraw from South-east Asia, South Korea and Japan at a time when nuclear and missile armed North Korean communist regime directly threatens Japan and South Korea, the entire balance of power in east Asia would be upset and China, of whom the rogue regime in North Korea is a cat’s paw, will become even more intransigent in disputes with its neighbours, especially our own. How Trump will deal with such a complicated situation with serious security implications, is yet to be seen.
It is to be hoped that President Trump not only says good things about India, as he did when he made a phone call to Prime Minister Modi the other day, but also endorses the policy of his predecessors in the strategic role of India in the emerging containment of China, and will be more innovative and aggressive in dealing with Pakistan where the civil society is in retreat and fundamental Islamic forces are calling the shots.
What ought to concern Asian policy-makers, more concerned about the uncertainties that Trump in America is reputed to bring about is the context, both global and local. Amidst these uncertainties — Thailand sees an era has ended with the passing away of a long reigning King and no possibility of the country’s military rulers vacating for a truly elected Government. In Burma, democracy has returned but Buddhist irredentism also with it creating an anti-minority stir.
There is an undercurrent of unrest in Indonesia also on communal lines, in Taiwan and South Korea ruling Presidents are under a cloud with popular demands for their resignation and in Japan all the formulas for lifting up of the economy simply are not working casting a shadow on Premier Shinzo Abe’s popularity.
Fortunately, India alone is now under a strong and stable leadership that has successfully worked out abiding relationship with a growth-oriented economic policy over riding all political differences internally. That New Delhi is widening and stregthening its say among West Asia’s rulers in Afghanistan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel as well as Palestine despite these rulers themselves are having conflicting relationships among them assures a lead role for India to play within emerging Trump radical policy changes.
It was a UAE Prince who was India’s guest at the Republic Day function in New Delhi. The one exception to these concatenation of West Asian relationships is Pakistan where the power structure is an unstable triangular contest between the civilian power, the military and the clerics, each one of whom keeps several terrorist groups as their weapon against a relentless pursuit of destroying India as their sole purpose in life.
Even in a context where Pakistan’s trained and nurtured militancy everytime is poking Indian social and economic and political infrastructure to look for soft spots, the political leadership in New Delhi has signalled a total overhaul and cleansing the country through applying a surgical operation in the currency affecting almost everyone, speaks of political determination of a clear headed regime.
As we watch the headlines in newspapers every day, the comparative stability is a reassuring sign of hope. So far it was China continually overtaking China. Now international institutions are saying that India will remain a country with a potential to overtake China. Prime Minister Modi’s distracters are licking the dust. We will have to wait for a verdict in case of Trump, notwithstanding continued witch-hunting by his warped baiters.
(The writer is former Rajya Sabha member from the BJP and Delhi-based political and social analyst)