A very good start has been made by Sharif, and Modi must meet him half way. Afghanistan has to be added to a fast-track dialogue so that tensions are removed and the rest of South Asia can enjoy the fruits of growth
last Monday and Tuesday, in a spectacular display of re-imagining India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made two splendid moves: Inviting SAARC-plus-one executives for his swearing-in ceremony, which was followed by one-on-one talks. The second was constructing a Cabinet of Ministers to ‘smartly’ govern India. Although largely symbolic, the first was pregnant with hope of peace in the neighbourhood and the other aspirational of power that will make India strong. While this blend of what Mr Modi has called “shanti and shakti” (peace and power) is destined to take India places, still it is largely a part of an impressive word play: Subject to delivery and implementation.
In his election speeches and interviews, Mr Modi had emphasised on making India strong so that it could find its full potential, reinvent itself and act and behave like India. For getting India back on track, a peaceful periphery is imperative and reaching out to the neighbourhood axiomatic. This is precisely what Mr Modi attempted in this first-ever short notice SAARC summit on essentially a ceremonial occasion. Mr Manmohan Singh understood regional-ness but could not transform the surfeit of snakes into ladders due to coalition politics, impoverished leadership and priority of Government survival over national security. It was Mr Singh who called Pakistan an “albatross around India’s neck”.
By ignoring the traditional difficulties Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is having with the Army, he reciprocated boldness with boldness in wishing to jointly re-script India-Pakistan relations at the risk of angering jihadis, the Inter-Services Intelligence and the anti-India community in Pakistan. This flying visit sets the tone and tenor for regaining lost ground and starting with a clean slate but preserving the hard-won gains of the past like progress on Siachen, Sir Creek and the four-point Kashmir formula. Many Pakistanis have frequently said that only a right wing BJP-led Government in India and an Army-backed or led Government in Pakistan can resolve differences and let them live as peaceful neighbours. This belief is sought to be broken on Pakistan’s part by Mr Sharif who has twice before been victim of the wrath of the Army.
To help Mr Sharif, who had taken a big risk in coming to India to break the jinx, Mr Modi will have to consider giving up the linkage between 26/11 Mumbai conviction of the masterminds of the terror assault and resumption of composite dialogue. For this he must seek yet another pledge from Pakistan not to allow use of its soil for terrorist assaults on India. Mr Sharif wants to pick up the threads broken after lahore at Kargil though a refurbished agenda for talks can be worked out. Grant of ‘Most Favoured Nation’ and liberalisation of the visa regime will boost trade, travel and connectivity.
A very good start has been made by Mr Sharif, and Mr Modi must meet him half way. Afghanistan has to be added to a fast-track dialogue so that tensions are removed and the rest of South Asia which is hostage to this on-off relationship can enjoy the fruits of growth and development. Still, fingers have to be kept crossed as none of this can happen till the Pakistan Army evaluates what’s in it for them.
The presence of Sri lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa was a clear signal that New Delhi will no longer be dictated by regional political considerations at the cost of national interests. India intervened in Sri lanka in 1987 to help Colombo preserve its national sovereignty, freeing it to fight the JVP while Indian Peace Keeping Force was to disarm the lTTE. In turn, Colombo merged the Tamil majority north and east and created the North-East Provincial Council devolving power under the 13th Amendment derived from the Indo-Sri lanka Accord.
The fourth Eelam War that Sri lanka won comprehensively would not have been feasible without India’s strategic assistance, a fact that Colombo admits. Victory against lTTE has made New Delhi less relevant and emboldened Sri lanka to equivocate on devolution to the Tamils after Mr Rajapaksa promised several times to implement 13th Amendment plus. Mr Rajapaksa is dragging its feet even as India has relaxed its insistence on investigating serious human rights allegations in the closing stages of the war. In this post-War period, China’s imprint is expanding. Mr Modi has to deliver the firm message to Mr Rajapaksa to keep his side of the bargain. Until now the signalling has been ambivalent.
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was represented by Speaker Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury as she was in Japan on a previously planned visit. She has done more for cleansing Bangladesh of terrorism, radicalism and extremism as well as removing sanctuaries of violent extremist organisations from its soil than any other leader in Dhaka. This has sanitised India’s North-East enabling containing residual insurgencies and militancy significantly. External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha in the NDA’s last term had observed that with Bangladesh, India had the worst relations, worse even than Pakistan. It would be no exaggeration that India’s best relations today are with Dhaka. Mr Modi has to help Bangladesh with the sharing of Teesta river waters and the land boundary agreements, both very do-able.
Mr Sushil Koirala continues the legacy of goodwill. For India his dynastic Koirala clan has quintessentially spread. Nepal has to finish writing the Constitution and get on with the business of nation-building after the 10-year-long civil war. The task for Nepal remains democratisation and mainstreaming the Maoists — the Baidya group — still sceptical of multi-party democracy. New Delhi’s security concerns are of Pakistan-trained terrorists still finding safe passage through Nepal across the open India-Nepal border and China’s unprecedented acquisition of political and economic space right across Nepal. In a minus-Monarchy Nepal with brand new political actors, New Delhi has to urgently reset relations elevating them to a political level.
Relations with Kabul are excellent but New Delhi has to keep all options open for a post-2014 Afghanistan, given Pakistan’s revulsion over India’s presence there. Maldives is responding favourably to India’s overtures after recent political hiccups. Bhutan is democratising following the fourth King’s dictum of Gross National Happiness. Mauritius remains a trusted friend and ally and must be kept in the fold.
This historical baggage has to be addressed in structured dialogues which will follow. Mr Modi must focus on regionalism, connectivity and the SAARC spirit which has to be created. Pakistan holds the key. Except in Afghanistan, China looms large elsewhere in the region. No Prime Minister has visited Kathmandu, Dhaka and Colombo on a bilateral visit for nearly 30 years. Surely this is not the SAARC way!