Chandrababu Naidu is banking on a bad idea
While Telugu Desam Party supremo Chandrababu Naidu has every right to feel upbeat at the end of his party's annual conference, Mahanadu, it is too early for him to celebrate what he believes is the TDP's imminent return to power in Andhra Pradesh. Politics in the State is no longer the straight fight that it was between the Congress and the TDP two decades ago. Many other players such as the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the YSR Congress have made inroads into the vote-banks that were loyal to either the Congress or the TDP. While it is true that both the TRS and the YSR Congress have influence in limited pockets of the State, they at least have a constituency to propel them. The TDP, after having lost power more than two decades ago, appears bereft of a solid vote-bank. The anti-Congress mood in the Telangana region will be exploited by the TRS, whereas the YSR Congress, which is pervasive in the Godavari, Krishna and the Nellore belt, will seek to convert the traditional support for late Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy into votes for the new party named after him. The late leader’s son and YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy has already demonstrated during his Odarpu Yatra the clout that he holds. The public sympathy generated by Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy's arrest on charges of financial irregularities after he rebelled against the Congress and quit it, will work to the party's advantage. In this situation, Mr Naidu has a tough task on hand. He is right in assessing that there is a strong anti-Congress mood in the State, but to what extent he is going to be a beneficiary of that sentiment, remains to be seen.
The TDP leader and former Chief Minister is banking on a poor performance of the Congress and the BJP in the lok Sabha election to trigger the formation of the so-called third front Government at the Centre. This, he seems to suggest, will also impact the State's politics and offer him an opportunity to bounce back to power. Mr Naidu is depending far too much on a failed idea. In the first place, the two developments are not necessarily inter-connected. Moreover, the third front is not the sort of alternative that the people of the country, disgusted with the Congress-led UPA's abysmal governance, are looking forward to. They have seen how such conglomerations, which are crafted merely to shore up the numbers needed to form a Government, have performed in recent years. The third front is an equally bad, if not worse, national alternative to the inept and scam-tainted UPA regime. Mr Naidu hopes that the fragmentation of votes in the State will help his party surge ahead. While the prospects of a division of votes in multi-cornered contests are always there, Mr Naidu may not necessarily walk away with the cream. Eventually, he also has to address the deep divisions that exist within his own party to fully capitalise on the anti-Congress sentiments in Andhra Pradesh. He needs to set his own house in order before entertaining third front dreams.