Congress expected to fall further to a new low
If Wednesday's exit poll results hold true on October 19, two clear conclusions can be drawn. The first is that the Bharatiya Janata Party has sustained the momentum of its dream victory in the lok Sabha election. And the second is that the Congress continues to plunge downhill, seeking newer lows. Regardless of which survey result one wishes to adopt, it appears evident that the BJP will form the Government in both Maharashtra and Haryana, displacing the Congress. Given that the BJP has only recently snatched the key State of Rajasthan from the Congress, and along with its ally, the Telugu Desam Party, replaced the Congress in the other important State of Andhra Pradesh, the loss of Maharashtra and Haryana would be a blow that the Congress will not be able to recover from any time soon. Indeed, it could further open the doors for the party's departure from the few States that it holds on to, sometime later if not immediately. In many ways, the Congress appears to have seen the writing on the wall. That it had reconciled to its defeat in the two States showed up in the absence of a strong campaign by its two most powerful leaders, Ms Sonia Gandhi and Mr Rahul Gandhi. This was in contrast to the offensive that the BJP had unleashed in both Maharashtra and Haryana, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah leading from the front. If the Congress loses the two States, it will be left holding just Kerala, Karnataka, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh as among the major States where it has its Government. And even these could, when election time comes, see a swing away from the party. It faces turbulence in Jammu & Kashmir where it is poised to contest the coming Assembly election without its partner, the National Conference, and uncertainty in Jharkhand, which too will see State election in the next few months. If things proceed as they seem, then the BJP's call for a “Congress-mukt Bharat” may well take shape. While it would be foolish to write off the Congress altogether in a democratic system such as ours, as of now the party faces the threat of further decline — and decimation in some States.
If the exit poll results are anything to go by, they should compel Mr Modi's critics to revise their opinion that the ‘Modi wave’ had waned since the lok Sabha election. The few setbacks which the BJP had suffered in a clutch of by-polls had set tongues wagging that the people were no longer with Mr Modi. Of course, the interpretation was wrongly premised on many reasons. But if the BJP wins in Maharashtra and Haryana, nobody can deny the continuation of the ‘Modi wave'. While is true that the party cadres and the local leadership in the two States have worked hard, Mr Modi was the star figure around whom the campaign revolved. His calling card was ‘development' and ‘good governance' — and it seems to be working yet again.