WhoIJ It’s not Casterbridge; no Hardy to guide
The dust may have settled down on the result of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election result, but the battle isn't over yet. The most tantalising contest, that for the civic body's mayorship, is due in a few weeks from now. What has made the contest interesting is that neither political party has the required numerical strength to see its candidate installed without the support, covert or overt, of others. How the conflict plays out could determine the fate of the Devendra Fadnavis Government in Maharashtra. Although the Shiv Sena has the biggest numbers, and this has been added to by the support of three independents, it's still far short of a simple majority. It will have to strike a deal with its former partner, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or fish for support from bitter rivals such as the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The backing of the Congress, however, does seem remote. Already, senior Congress leaders have ruled out a tie-up possibility. There is reason for this. The first is that the Congress will cut a sorry figure in Uttar Pradesh, which is still voting, if it aligns with a party that is pereived to be against north Indians. Besides, the Congress has always held the Shiv Sena to be ‘communal'. The fact that in the early years of its existence, the Shiv Sena and the Congress had had tacit understandings is unlikely to influence decisions today. Besides, the Congress will face serious dissension within its ranks in Maharashtra in case it decides to back the Shiv Sena. The same can be true of the Shiv Sena too. It is one thing for the Shiv Sena to lampoon Prime Minister Modi, and quite another to manage the BMC’s affairs in active coalition with the Congress. The Shiv Sena's gameplan to somehow isolate the BJP — even if it means supping with the devil — will boomerang. Further, the voters will feel cheated if the Shiv Sena helps the Congress make a backdoor entry after they had emphatically rejected the latter. Finally, if things later go wrong with the alliance — as they are bound to sooner than later — the Shiv Sena will have to return to the BJP for help, and the latter will then be on a stronger footing to put conditions for its support.
The BJP too is in no position to govern the BMC on its own, despite having secured the support of a few independents. A tie-up with the Congress stands ruled out, and that with the NCP brings nothing much on the table in terms of numbers. Its best bet is, therefore, to rejoin hands with the Shiv Sena. Together they have more than the requisite strength to govern the civic body efficiently and with stability. So far, though, the Shiv Sena remains belligerent and has not ceased its vitriol against the BJP. The sabre-rattling by the Shiv Sena is obviously an attempt to browbeat the BJP into submission — and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who led his party to the good showing in the Mumbai civic poll, is showing no sign of succumbing. If the alliance does not get re-stitched, there could be two larger implications. The first is that the Shiv Sena will pull out of the State Government; the second is that it will also withdraw from the NDA regime at the Centre. While the latter case will mean little, the former could lead the Fadnavis regime to look for options or call for an early election.