The 'jungle raj' factor

BJP focus on lalu-Nitish tango makes sense

The new names that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given to the abbreviated forms of the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal may make for wholesome entertainment (and it has provoked similar caustic comments from his rivals in Bihar), but there is more than a grain of truth to his jibes. On Sunday, and on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's home turf, Mr Modi said the JD(U) stood for “Janata ka Daman aur Utpidan” (repression of and misery to the people). Weeks ago, he had quipped that that the RJD represented “Roj Jungle Raj ka Dar” (daily fear of the rule of the jungle). Enough has been written about the terrible state of affairs that existed during the heyday of the RJD's rule, both with lalu Prasad and Ms Rabri Devi as Chief Ministers. Not only was governance chaotic but goondaism had a free run across the State.

It is this situation that had provoked the voters to reject the RJD and bring in the JD(U)-BJP combine to power. It was lalu Prasad's misrule which had provided a platform for Mr Nitish Kumar to assume centre-stage with the BJP's backing. Now that the JD(U) and the RJD have joined hands to contest the State Assembly election, doubts have naturally surfaced on the efficacy of a Government in which the same RJD and the same lalu Prasad will have considerable — even decisive — say. All these past years, Mr Nitish Kumar had held lalu Prasad responsible for the mess that Bihar had slumped into. Therefore, one wonders what sort of good governance, which he has been promising to the people in the run-up to the election, he can provide in collaboration with lalu Prasad and the RJD. Mr Modi and other BJP leaders have done well so far to focus on the fear factor and the promise of genuine development: The fear of a return to the jungle raj if the RJD-JD(U) came to power and prosperity in case the voters backed the BJP. It's not that caste considerations are immaterial, but there is no need to revolve an election campaign around them. After all, voters of Bihar had only a little over a year ago in the lok Sabha election rejected the stereotypical pattern of voting along caste lines and given the BJP a big majority of the seats from the State. They have had enough of political caste games.

While there is the arithmetical possibility that the Nitish-lalu magnet will attract large sections of voters ranging from the Yadav community to the minorities to a section of the backward classes, it is equally true that the BJP along with its partners such as Mr Ram Vilas Paswan and Mr Jitan Ram Manjhi and others, can upset the rival applecart. Moreover, it is very possible that the lack, nay, the absence, of governance, that lalu Prasad and his party symbolise, could adversely impact the fortunes of their new friend, the JD(U). Also, the anger over jungle raj had cut across caste divisions, and there is no indication that suddenly, all has been forgotten and forgiven.

All said, the Assembly election in Bihar promises to be an interesting contest. A victory for the BJP will undo the damage its image suffered after its humiliating loss in the Delhi Assembly poll. It will also imperil the already fragile coalition between the RJD and the JD(U).