Alagiri’s suspension worsens DMK prospects
MK Alagiri’s suspension from his father's party, though driven by electoral considerations and calculations, will nevertheless dent the DMK's prospects in the upcoming lok Sabha poll. While it is true that the political clout of the former Union Minister, who served as the DMK's South Zone secretary from his stronghold in Madurai, had eroded significantly in recent years, he still commands a strong and loyal vote base. The loss of this cluster is bound to hurt the DMK, especially more at a time when the party's fortunes are in a downward spiral. However, the DMK seems to have calculated that it will be able to offset that loss through an alliance with the DMDK, led by Captain Vijaykant. Mr Alagiri has publicly criticised this alliance and in the process, undermined the leadership of his brother and the party's heir apparent MK Stalin, which is what led to his expulsion. The latter has been advocating strongly in favour of the alliance, which also has the blessings of their father, DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi. Ostensibly, the DMK high command wants to put up a united political face in the run-up to the general election. However, this effort at speaking in a single voice has come at the cost of silencing dissenting views — and the party may have to pay the price. The question is: Can the DMK afford itIJ
As of now, the DMK-DMDK alliance is still in the air. let us not forget that the DMDK gained popularity on an anti-DMK plank. A tie-up between the two will be tenuous, to say the least. In fact, only last week Mr Karunanidhi dismissed reports of talks between the two parties. This only goes to show that the arrangement is far from firm. The DMK is still wooing the DMDK and the latter is playing hard to get. It is quite possible that with Mr Alagiri's suspension, the DMK has sought to step up its game — the ‘containment' of the older son, who has been railing against the DMDK for long, was one of the conditions that Captain Vijaykant had reportedly insisted on. But, only time will tell if this will help Mr M Karunanidhi clinch the deal.
For Mr Alagiri though, there is no looking away from the fact that he is now past his political prime. The ignominy of being suspended from his family-run party will continue to haunt him. Even if he returns to the DMK fold at a later date, his influence will be severely limited — his team of loyalists has already been removed from Madurai, and he was always on the sidelines anyway in Chennai where his brother now holds sway. Going forward, it is this sibling rivalry which will hurt Mr Alagiri most, even if he puts aside his differences over the DMDK. For several years now, Mr Alagiri has taken a strong stance against his brother and made it amply clear that he will not accept the leadership of Mr Stalin (who enjoys greater support within the party rank and file). Usually, Mr Karunanidhi has mediated and prevented an outright split between the two. But with the DMK coming under tremendous poll pressure, he now has less space to manoeuvre. Add to this, Mr Alagiri's deteriorating political performance — in the 2011 Assembly election, the DMK lost all of its 10 seats from Madurai —and it explains why the 89-year-old is now leaning on Mr Stalin's shoulders.