Alliances break, uncertainties loom large
The Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party splits 20 days before Maharashtra votes in the Assembly election, have opened myriad possibilities but also added a large dose of political uncertainty. A four-cornered contest is not something that the voters of Maharashtra have been used to, at least not in the two decades or so. It will be interesting to see how the four parties, now shorn of alliances, will perform on their own. But the situation does give an equal opportunity to all to test their individual strengths. While the two alliances have collapsed for now, there is no saying that fresh ones will not emerge in the post-result scenario, though it is too early to determine the contours. From all predictions, the Shiv Sena-BJP grouping had been all set to sweep the poll, but now, with the two going separate ways, speculation is rife on which of them will emerge as the single largest party. The single largest party will have the leverage to decide the shape of a new regime and the choice of Chief Minister. It must be remembered that one of the reasons why the BJP called off the arrangement was because it was upset with the Shiv Sena's repeated attempt to project its chief Uddhav Thackeray as the chief ministerial candidate. Similarly, the NCP was unhappy with Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan's leadership. On the other hand, the Nationalist Congress Party perhaps saw an opportunity in the break-up between the Shiv Sena-BJP ties to test the waters alone. In any case, its relations with the Congress had been strained for long, dating back to before the lok Sabha election; it had even then seemed a matter of time before the NCP snapped its links with the national party. It is an interesting coincidence (some in the Congress have said there is more to the timing) that both the BJP and the NCP decided within hours of each other to part ways with their respective partners. The other common factor is that both these parties had been seeking a larger share of seats on the premise that they had either been performing better than their respective allies in recent elections or having a better success rate with the seats they contested. The changed political situation too contributed to the tough stand that both the NCP and the BJP have taken. With the BJP's stellar performance in the lok Sabha election and Mr Amit Shah's appointment as party president, it was clear that the Shiv Sena would have to show flexibility. It did not. As for the NCP, after the rout in the lok Sabha poll, it had begun to increasingly realise that the Congress had become a liability.
Meanwhile, although the Congress has a base in Maharashtra, it will find the hustings difficult to handle on its own. The NCP has many pockets of influence and its cadre, from all accounts, pumped up by the party's decision to sever ties with the Congress, is set to go for the Congress's jugular. For NCP leader Sharad Pawar, it is a fight for relevance — both for himself and the party. This explains why the NCP has been talking of exploring an alliance with “secular parties”. It is not clear what this means, just as it remains unclear whether the post-result situation will push the NCP back in the Congress's camp, to serve — what else — the ‘secular' cause.