Even if there is a military intervention against the Islamic State, fighting in Syria and Iraq will continue as long as the political grievances that triggered terrorism aren't addressed
Such is the prescience of Messers Boaz Ganor and Stevie Weinberg at the Counter Terrorism Centre in Herzliya, Israel, that they were able to forecast, in mid-September, a terrorist strike in Europe sourced in Syria. The simulation exercise visualised that a group of returning foreign fighters ‘planning a strategic terrorist attack within Europe’. The target country was Belgium, which is in lockdown, whereas the attacks occurred in Paris barely two months later.
Their narrative had focussed on seven foreign fighters, trained at the headquarters of the Islamic State in Raqqa, for a mass attack in crowded places in Belgium, France and Hollande. The fighters were to enter Belgium before the end of September, dressed and acting as refugees, for the attacks.
Mr Brian Jenkins of Rand Corporation, acting as Prime Minister Charles Michel of Belgium with his advisors aided by high grade intelligence, considered the options of either taking out the seven terrorists inside Syria with drones, like the UK had eliminated a British terrorist that week in Syria, or as decreed by the Constitution of Belgium and EU law, track and arrest them in Belgium. The information was shared with the UK and France. Thanks to superb intelligence, the seven terrorists were arrested in Antwerp. End of Part One of the simulation which got the country wrong, but little else.
On November 21, the Belgian Prime Minister declared his country faced serious and imminent threat, including a chemical attack, as Paris attack suspect Saleh Abdeslam, a Belgian of Moroccan descent, was on the run. Another terrorist team was believed to be on the prowl in Belgium (which has the highest number of foreign fighters per capita, at 350). Meanwhile, all eyes and ears are on France and Belgium, reeking of catastrophic intelligence failures which will reshape the face of Europe. The return rate of foreign fighters for Europe is 30 per cent, so two big problems facing Europe are new refugees and returned foreign fighters.
According to Mr Jenkins, a stalemate had been reached in Syria and Iraq with Government forces unable to take back lost ground. Equally, the Islamic State had lost momentum by its strategic overreach. Even if Governments collapsed, neither side will be able to establish control of territories in Syria and Iraq. National armies had failed, especially in the case of Iraq where the US invested billions of dollars in training soldiers. Pentagon enquiries reveal that some after-action reports had been doctored to disguise the retreat of the Iraqi Army as redeployment.
Mr Jenkins concludes that Syria and Iraq are de facto partitioned: Fighting will continue for a decade and more as it is easy to disperse insurgents, not easy to pacify them; and without adequate military investment there can be no improvement in the situation especially when countries have their separate individual interests.
The Paris attacks have elicited symbolic solidarity at the United Nations on countering the Islamic State, as this newspaper’s Monday editorial highlighted. The UN Security Council has adopted the French-sponsored 14th terrorism-related resolution since 1999, “to take all necessary measures” to defeat Islamic State. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has frequently highlighted the partial and selective treatment of terrorism, urging the adoption of the India-sponsored Comprehensive Convention on Terrorism and a common definition of terrorism.
Though neither is likely to ever materialise, Mr Ganor has come up with a definition for terrorism: A non-state actor committing a terrorist attack against civilians for a political motive. He also suggests that for winning the war against terrorists not only has their operational capability to be defeated but more importantly also their motivation to fight. And both these victories have to be within the ambit of the rule of law; in other words, winning the legal battles.
Where the Islamic State wins hands down is on social media, in the war of ideas. Combining political grievance with religion and ideology, the Islamic State out-communicate states which are armed with leading communications technologies but without a counter-narrative. The Islamic State’s marketing is so good that you do not have to go to Syria or Iraq to become a jihadi.
The Islamic State is the fastest risen, most ruthless and hybrid terrorist organisation in history. It is mainly comprised of youths led by former Baathist officers. like the liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the Islamic State has territory, people, resources, and an Army but no Navy and Air Force (as yet). Thirty to 40 armed groups supporting Al Qaeda have changed allegiance to the Islmic State. Compared to the Islamic State, Al Qaeda, which is now competing with it, seems like a humanitarian organisation.
The Islamic State has a central bureaucracy and general supervisory committees. It established the ‘caliphate’ on June 29, 2014, and controls Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria. It has set up franchises in libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Gaza, the Sinai and aspires for a ‘Khorasan’ that will include swathes of the Indian subcontinent.
The Islamic State has set up Tanzim Ansar al-Tawheed fi Bilad al-Hind, which translates the group’s puritanical Islamist Taqfiri movement in the Salafi idiom into Gurmukhi, Hindi, Gujarati, Tamil and Malayalam. It claims sway from Marrakesh to Bangladesh. While Boko Haram in Nigeria owed allegiance to the Islamic State, it did not adopt its model of governance. Its immediate objectives are to topple the near enemy like Sunni Arab regimes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and later go for Shias. The far enemy is the US.
lately, the Islamic State has suffered setbacks and lost ground. However, neither the air campaign nor boots on the ground will vanquish the Islamic State. Coalitions of the willing will not put boots on the ground and, even if they do, they will not be sufficient to defeat he Islamic State, which has an army of upto 50,000 fighters with no dearth of new recruits, foreign fighters and human bombers. For the first time in a multiple operation, any terrorist organisation fielded seven suicide bombers in Paris as the Islamic State did. Conflicting objectives within the coalition will not allow the outfit’s eradication till the political grievances that triggered terrorism are also effectively addressed.
Indian cities aspiring to be smart are hopelessly vulnerable to terrorism. In countering terrorism, you are lucky if you receive intelligence tip offs. Otherwise, you are on your own. But for the quick intervention of French special forces in the Bataclan theatre attack, the rampage would have ended in a carnage. The lashkar-e-Tayyeba remains the main challenge for India. Our cities have to be hardened, a repeat of 26/11 prevented, and special forces have to eliminate terrorists swiftly, within a maximum three hours not three days as was the case during 26/11. That was disgraceful.