Islamic State marks its presence in Afghanistan
If Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is right about Saturday's suicide bombing in Jalalabad being a handiwork of the Islamic State, then the terror attack could mark the opening of a new front in war-ravaged Afghanistan and bring the group much closer to India's doorstep than previously feared. Up until now, the Islamic State's reach in India has been limited to a handful of Indian nationals fighting for the group in Syria and Iraq, and a few Twitter accounts spreading IS propaganda. Consequently, the terror group, which has shocked the world with its brutality and bloodlust, is yet to be considered an imminent security threat in this country.
However, this might change sooner than expected. If the group is already making its presence felt in Afghanistan, and there have also been reports that it is recruiting actively in Pakistan, then it's only a matter of time before IS fighters start blowing themselves up at India's door. The key question here is: How strong is the IS in Afghanistan and PakistanIJ There is no clear and easy answer but there is strong evidence in both cases that the group has at least a toehold in some parts of both countries. In Pakistan, the Government has warned that the group is collaborating with sectarian outfits like Jundallah and lashkar-e-Jhangvi while a spurt of IS propaganda has been noticed in the cities. On the bright side, however, the group's country chief was reportedly blown to smithereens while conducting an explosives workshop this past Thursday.
In Afghanistan too, IS propaganda material, flags and suspected foreign fighters have been spotted, particularly on the eastern border with Pakistan. Western media has confirmed that the group is conducting full-scale recruiting programmes. Additionally, many believe that the February abduction of 30 Hazaras near Zabul Province and a bus bombing in Wardak were organised by the IS — especially since the Afghan Taliban, not one to shy away from taking credit for terror attacks, refused to accept responsibility. Against this backdrop, Saturday's suicide bombing that claimed 35 lives could signify a definite escalation in tactic and strategy.
It doesn't take a security analyst to see that the impoverished and often radicalised AfPak region, flushed with battle-hardened Islamists, is an ideal breeding ground for the IS. Even though the jihadi space here is crowded, the generational shift that is underway in many of these groups provides ample space for the IS to carve its niche. The Afghan Taliban is past its prime, its Pakistani counterpart has a difficult equation with the deep state at home, and Al Qaeda has been considerably degraded. With the US also having reduced its presence in Afghanistan, there is a security vacuum. It's still not clear if the IS will position itself as a rival to the Taliban or cooperate with the established players. But there have been quite a few instances of former Taliban fighters switching loyalties — the IS leader in Afghanistan himself being one such example.