The more the standoff persists, the more complex will reconciliation become
The Saudi Arabia-led Gulf Cooperation Council versus Qatar standoff is showing no signs of easing, and this is troubling because of the energy and security implications for the region and the larger world. Perhaps Saudi Arabia believes that by continuing to choke the tiny kingdom — diplomatic relations have been severed and trade and travel restrictions imposed — it will be able to make Doha bend on its knees. On the other hand, Qatar is not entirely without aces up its sleeve, though it has not played them yet. There is a pipeline that links the massive offshore gas reserves in Qatar to Saudi Arabia which supplies gas to the latter, used to power the Saudi kingdom. It would be catastrophic for Riyadh if Qatar were to turn off the tap. For obvious reasons, Doha does not want to take that extreme step. It would be foolish for either party to escalate matters further. Indeed, the need of the hour is to de-escalate. This is of course easier said than done — though it has to be done eventually for the larger good. Saudi Arabia and its partners hold Qatar responsible for promoting terror outfits that have Iran's backing. Besides, they haven't forgotten Doha's supposed support to the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. They are also cut up with the ‘propaganda' that the Doha-based Al Jazeera television channels has been airing, which, they believe is detrimental to their interests and to peace and stability in the Arab world. These are not new charges. Back in 2014, a tacit understanding had been reached between the Saudi-led grouping (which also included the United Arab Emirates) and Qatar, which was termed as the Riyadh agreement. Then too, diplomatic ties had been snapped and were restored after the deal was struck. Now, the Gulf Cooperation Council feels that Doha failed to keep its commitment. Qatar has its own version, and has expressed its willingness, following the fresh spat, to discuss matters. But so far there has been no real response from the other side.
There are many complications round the corner if the current round of escalation is not contained. The more Saudi Arabia and its partners remain inflexible, the more there is a chance of the Qatar-Iran combine solidifying. This will make the task of a compromise even more difficult. If Saudi Arabia believes that it can get rid of the problem through some sort of a coup, it would be taking a huge risk. It's unlikely that the people of Qatar will depose their emir. They are quite happy with their rulers; the per capita gross domestic product has more than doubled in the last two decades. Engineering a coup from the outside would not be internationally acceptable. The only way out is to resolve matters across the table. The problem really is the Iran-Saudi confrontation for dominance in the Muslim world, with both sides seeking to enlarge their kitty of partners in the project. In the present context too, this is being played out.