US-Russia deal gives hope, but obstacles remain
With the United States of America and Russia joining hands to contain violence in Syria, the chances for the war-ravaged nation to have peace, have brightened. The new agreement, if it comes into effect under which a joint military operation has been planned, will help prevent the deadly offensives of the Islamic State and other rebel groups that have paralysed civilian life for the last five years, since civil strife broke out. The agreement also highlights a slew of improved humanitarian aid access, which is badly needed in the conflict-ridden country. This can relieve thousands of people trapped in the fighting of forces of Bashar al-Assad and the rebels. Despite continuing mistrust, the US and Russia have moved for a joint peace initiative in one of the most contested battle-fields in West Asia. It will hopefully script a new trend in bilateral relations between the two giants in the global power calculus.
However, the peace deal over Syria can raise new complexities, even as it has been cautiously welcomed by world leaders and the main opposition parties. The Free Syrian Army, the moderate rebel group, says the deal is not going to be a reality as both Russia and Syria will not abide by it. Even Bassma Kodmani, the spokeswoman of the opposition High Negotiation Committee, by stating, “If it (the deal) is going to be enforced...”, underlines the fragility of the agreement. The past records indicate that both America and Russia had failed to observe the last agreement, so there can be no guarantee that this will be successful. John Kerry, the US Foreign Secretary, while saying that “no one is building this based on trust, it is based on oversight, compliance and mutual interest”, is directly hinting that the road ahead in making peace talk, will be difficult in Syria.
Though the agreement can be regarded as a turning point for Syria, yet its success depends on Russia to a considerable extent — as only Moscow can convince Assad. Unless there is a political solution which hints at Assad's honourable exit or devises a comprehensive framework under which the major opposition parties are brought under one head, no peace deal will work on the ground. If Assad is not convinced about his safe exit (assuming he agrees to quit) and of the security of his kinsmen belonging to the minority Alawite (a Shia community), in all likelihood he will see that the current civil war continues. The Arab-Sunnis constitute near about 60 per cent of Syria's population and they have been waiting for long to topple the Assad regime. So, the post-Assad scenario can well complicate the entire peace process, especially if an international monitoring force does not guarantee safety to the civilians of all communities in the country. The UN must see to it that both the US and Russia abide by the terms and conditions of the deal and sustain that respect in the days to come. Else, Syria will have to wait for a long, long time, for peace.